Day to day discussions on S/P, page-8070

I don't feel motivated to post anymore.

I suppose I've always posted like I was jotting down my thoughts, to see what came back. Always looking for affirmation of what I could see happening.

From every aspect now, I see the EV revolution fomenting. Economics killed the EV in 2005 but today it is becoming the selling point. EV subsidies may be ending but that's only because the scaling of production is driving EV battery prices below USD100kWh and EV no longer needs to be fostered.

EV battery costs will fall to a point where consumers will demand EVs for financial reasons, if not only for quietness, acceleration, emissions free and environmental reasons.

Tesla is a small part of the story now. This Lithium boom is driven by pollution concerns in China and greater Asia. Even us. Growing up in Sydney's north, looking at the brown haze skyline at peak hour traffic times always shocked me. One day we will wonder how we tolerated living in these cancerous conditions.


PLS itself maintains a remarkable progression in terms of mining operations commencements. Excellent management that surfed fortuitous timing to arrange quality offtakes to finance Stage 1 and now Stage 2, whilst others labour and stall. Future expansions will be financed through profits made.

The only large 100% owned hard rock Lithium mine in the world guaranteeing free will. This will add a hefty premium to any future valuation (not to mention Mt Francisco) in the event of a takeover. Plenty of prospective suitors out there.

First mover advantage is still in play (underpinning Lithium pricing) as Brine suppliers ALL falter in supply forecasts. GXYers seem very confident this fate won't befall them with their SDV project. Or James Bay won't encounter Nemaska problems. Hey good luck to them.

With Stage 2 commissioning this quarter next year, the 2021 financial year should yield 840kt of SC6 with a DFS cost of USD233. At last quarters pricing that's an EBITDA of USD430m or around $600m. That's gotta justify a SP of upwards of $4.00 by the August 2021 announcement. There has to be a gradual SP improvement up to then annnndddd ... that doesn't even allow for POSCO downstream.


Just seems to me, patience is all that's required now.

Gone fishing.