Interesting to hear this take on Gold. Certainly hasn't been trading as a safe haven asset and has been really quite unpredictable after coming off the recent highs. There may be a changing of the guard so to speak with how people view the precious metal in comparison with digital assets. Bitcoin offers the advantage of being both liquid and instantly transferable which can make Gold seem pretty old school. Its possible money flow into Bitcoin could be diverting investment in Gold and that trend could continue as it gains in acceptance and price.
Still though, with the expected US Stimulus measures being inflationary for asset prices it would seem fair to expect the Gold price to do well. One factor that seems to be affecting Gold is movements in the US dollar index DXY, as they seem to move inversely.
It may also be premature to assume that vaccines are going to be the end of Covid and a return to normality in the short term. Vaccines may do nothing to stop actual transmission and turn the vaccinated into carriers. The virus may also constantly evolve and the duration of protection offered by vaccines is unknown. In these scenarios the anticipated economic recovery could be delayed and the risk premium for Gold would surely return. It feels like the most optimistic scenarios are being factored into markets when outcomes are far from certain.
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