Australian ETFs that follow US markets may provide a unique insight. Instos & MMs can't run their bots for 18 hrs. That's a long time to be inactive whilst the biggest markt in the world is active. IVV is essentially an ES ETF.
If their plan was to distribute during the run up from Apr 22 til now, then they have to do all of that distributing during a relatively small window of 6 hours, rather than spreading it out and hiding their distribution over a 23 hr session.
Imagine if you - a retail trader - had 10 mins a day to trade a thinly traded stock. Your aim is to exit a large position slowly over a few months (you have to because of low daily turnover). You know the market is rising, and you know you can't dump it all at once. In that 10 minutes, you'd spend most of that time selling. That's what I think is happening with IVV. If it suddenly flips to demand I'll be left looking like a fool. I wouldn't rule that out.
NDQ is NQ ETF. Same thing, but more pronounced. Heavy supply that has contracted to a position of equivalence and low volatlity.
Nas has a clear distribution box in orange. We're back at the lower border of that box.
