yes, he's a Caber tosser, gotta get rid of his frustrations somehow, i suppose if he's a Caber tosser, then that would make @RockstarJones a splinter tosser, but i digress
DOW 25579 plus 100
S@p500 2847 plus 7
NASDAQ 7766 minus 7
FTSE 7067 minus 80
DAX 11412 minus 80
GOLD $1523.81 plus $7.91
SPI Futures mimus 32
The Dow Jones Transportation Average’s continued selloff Thursday could bode badly for the overall stock market, as it is on the verge of triggering a bearish signal from a widely watched theory market analysis.
The Dow transports DJT, -0.79% dropped 78 points, or 0.8%, to close at 9,764.49, after tumbling 306 points, or 3.0%, on Wednesday. The selloff comes despite Dow Jones Industrial Average’s DJIA, +0.39% 100-point, or 0.4% gain, which followed Wednesday’s 800-point, or 3.1% rout. See Market Snapshot.
If the transports tracker falls just 0.3%, it would close below the May 31 closing low of 9,738.03. That would be significant for followers of the Dow Theory, which has remained relevant among market watchers for a century, given its strong track record of calling major bull and bear markets. See related: Don’t dis the Dow Theory just because it’s over 100 years old.
A close that’s lower than its previous low would follow a lower high, in which the July 16 recovery peak of 10,794.59 was below the April 24 peak of 11,098.99. FactSet, MarketWatch
One of the key tenets of the Dow Theory is that a pattern of declining peaks and troughs defines a downtrend.
In comparison, the Dow industrials DJIA, +0.39% currently sits 3.0% above May 31 closing low of 24,815.04, while its July 15 record close of 27,359.16 was well above the April 23 high of 26,656.39. FactSet, MarketWatch
While the Dow industrials may be much more widely followed, and represents a much broader segment of the stock market, the transportation sector is viewed by many as a key indicator of the market’s, and the economy’s health.
The idea is, transports take to customers what industrials make; if customers aren’t taking, the makers will slow down, and then the economy weakens.
Another Dow Theory tenet is that the Dow industrials and the Dow transports must confirm each other, meaning “no important bull or bear market signal could take place unless both averages gave the same signal,” according to the CMT Association. If the indexes are moving in different directions, it could be an omen that the previous primary trend was about to change.
Basically, the Dow transports new secondary downtrend could be a harbinger of further weakness for the Dow industrial. Don’t miss: Opinion: Dow Theory fans see signs of trouble in a soft Dow Jones Transportation Average.
Keep in mind that this new bearish signal for the Dow transports comes as it so far failed to confirm the Dow industrials’ bull-market signal last month. While the Dow’s July closing high was a record, the Dow transports April high was 4.1% below the Sept. 14, 2018 record close of 11,570.84.
Of course, this is nowhere near a Dow Theory sell signal, which MarketWatch contributor Mark Hulbert, founder of the Hulbert Financial Digest, thoroughly explains. But that doesn’t mean investors shouldn’t be on the watch for other bearish signals.
Among some other downside levels to watch for the Dow transports is 9,577.57. That level represents a 61.8% retracement of the rally off the Dec. 24 closing low of 8,637.15 to the April 24 high of 11,098.99. FactSet, MarketWatch
Chart watchers who use the Fibonacci ratio of 1.618, which is also known as the “golden” or “divine” ratio given its prevalence in natural systems on earth and in space, believe retracements that exceed 61.8% of the previous move is no longer governed by that move. That suggests a full-retracement of the move is the next target, which would be 8,637.15 for the Dow transports. Read more about how the Fibonacci ratio is used by chart watchers.
For the Dow industrials, the downside levels to watch include the May 31 closing low of 24,815.04 and 23,918.78, which is the 61.8% retracement of the uptrend off the Dec. 24 closing low of 21,792.20 to the July 15 record.
what we can expect
Futures currently down minus 23
dunno about you, but i see a 800 point fall on the Dow followed by a 100 point gain as a sign this market has more chance of falling further
and now for my last breakfast, the easily offended had better look away, you have been warned
FactSet, MarketWatch
FactSet, MarketWatch
