Haha brilliant Speckled, thanks as always. This was truly the light of my day so far.
I saw you tagged me a few days ago about MOY, I didn't 'poo poo' the announcement haha but I did have a couple of observations.
Firstly, the teaser about a new resource estimate in october is most likely going to spur on some buying and probably lead to a decent trade window between now and then. I would hazard MOY has around a 25-50% discount built in on reserve life and uncertainty.
Secondly, once this is released, I would sell the news. This may seem a bit silly if they have huge numbers but grades will be far more important for the two sites they have been drilling due to the distance away from the processing facility.
I'll let you be the judge of where the economics lie, but an old rule of thumb is 50c/t/km haulage. Use whatever grade you want and the distance (9km or 24km respectively for their two siteS) and remember its return trip (so double it) and you'll see the impact in terms of $/oz. It can be quite a high impact, especially on 1g/t.
The impact goes down significantly with grade however, so that's what will be key.
Finally, they are targetting pretty tight drills to get to proven/probable resources rather than normal drill programs which are designed to test the strike length and rough variability. This means the numbers they produce may be small reserve increases (150-200koz) which the market may react negatively towards even though thats probably what they are chasing (that's roughly 3-4 years of production at current rates which gives them more time to drill).
So perhaps I would just say my opinion is that MOY looks like a decent short term opportunity, especially if gold can break and hold over 1300USD however the october release scares me in that the market reaction may be negative just based on the average market knowledge of what MOY is trying to do.
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