Good morning team, thanks @ttward, @Ravgnome & the aftermarket loungers, hope you all had a great week. I suppose it was too much to expect Brexit to have resolved itself in my absence.

An actual happy Monday though as some of us celebrate the cessation of daylight savings, and the weekend gone being a precious 1 hr longer. Keep a watch out for any poor souls turning up to work 1 hr early, and give them a warm cuppa. I’m betting at least one person on HC asks today why the markets aren’t open on time this morning.

And a big howling thanks to @oldfluffy for taking over for the week who did a fantastic job, and welcome to do it again anytime. In fact, if there is ever anyone that feels like having a crack, whether that be for a day or two or longer, I’m more than happy to step aside (although I get the feeling the line to get up early every morning is relatively slim hehe). Or don’t be afraid to add your own report, analysis, data, whatever, go right ahead. Lots of talented and experienced folks here, and I’m always keen to hear others perspectives.

ASX Market Report

The Australian sharemarket has slumped lower for a second straight day, leaving it flat for the week.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index closed down 51.5 points, or 0.83 per cent, to 6,181.3 points at 1615 AEDT on Friday, while the broader All Ordinaries was down 49.8 points, or 0.79 per cent, to 6,270.6. Every sector was in the red, with tech stocks the hardest-hit, down 1.56 per cent. The sell-off left the market up less than a point higher than where it began on Monday. "I think we've had a couple of breather days" following seven straight days of gains, Blue Ocean Equities analyst Mathan Somasundaram said. "The market is pretty much on hold for the [US-China] trade deal," Mr Somasundaram said. "Most people are sitting out."

US President Donald Trump said on Friday (Australia time) that the US had found agreement on some of the toughest issues in its trade talks with China, but sticking points remained. Mr Somasundaram said that if a deal did not come within four weeks, as Mr Trump promised, the market could panic. Mr Somasundaram added that the markets were adjusting to the fact that the global economy would be stuck with low interest rates for awhile, making it tough for banks to make money.

All of Australia's big four banks were in the red, with NAB down 1.43 per cent to $24.81, ANZ down 1.18 per cent to $25.95, Westpac down 0.69 per cent to $26.05 and Commonwealth down 0.48 per cent to $70.89. But buy-now, pay-later companies Afterpay Touch and Zip Co both hit all-time highs following reports earlier in the week that Australian retail sales had bounced back in February. Zip was up 5.67 per cent to $2.05 while Afterpay gained 3.83 per cent to $24.40.

There was also good news for Automotive Holdings Group shareholders, with the stock jumping 20.79 per cent to $2.15 after vehicle retailer AP Eagers announced an all-stock offer for the company.

AP Eagers gained 5.63 per cent to $7.69.

Telecom stocks and the miners were down the least, both collectively less than 0.2 per cent.

Mining giant BHP lost 0.51 per cent to $29.22 while Rio Tinto gained 0.28 per cent to $99.91.

Fortescue Metals was up 1.04 per cent to $7.78 after Moody's Investors Service said the approval of its Iron Bridge magnetite iron ore project south of Port Hedland, WA, would create near-term risks but long-term benefits and left its bond rating unchanged.

Gold miners posted gains after a rise in the price of the yellow metal overnight. Newcrest Mining was up 0.12 per cent to $24.63, Northern Star added 0.93 per cent at $8.68 and Evolution Mining gained 1.4 per cent to $3.62.

Telco Telstra was down 0.3 per cent to $3.27, while pharma giant CSL was down 1.19 per cent to $196.88.

The Aussie dollar is buying 71.25 US cents, from 71.16 US cents on Thursday.

Looking head, investors will be watching the release of US non-farm payroll numbers late on Friday night (AEDT) to see how the world's largest economy is doing, Mr Somasundaram said.

ON THE ASX:

* The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 51.5 points, or 0.83 per cent, to 6,181.3 points at 1630 AEDT on Friday.

* The All Ordinaries was down 49.8 points, or 0.79 per cent, to 6,270.6.

* At 1630 AEDT, the SPI200 futures index was down 55 points, or 0.88 per cent, to 6,163.

CURRENCY SNAPSHOT AT 1630 AEDT:

One Australian dollar buys:

* 71.25 US cents, from 71.16 US on Thursday

* 79.58 Japanese yen, from 79.28

* 63.46 euro cents, from 63.29

* 54.36 British pence, from 53.99

* 105.43 NZ cents, from 104.86

Global Markets Report

Global stocks rose to a fresh six-month high on Friday after concerns about an economic slowdown were lessened by U.S. labor market data, while optimism that a trade deal between the United States and China was drawing closer also lifted sentiment.

After results some analysts saw as distorted by the partial government shutdown in the prior two months, data showed U.S. employment growth accelerated from a 17-month low in March, buoyed by milder weather.

U.S. short-term interest-rate futures held on to earlier slight losses after the data, as contracts tied to the Federal Reserve's policy rate continue to price in a little less than a 50 percent chance of an interest rate cut by year's end, and a little more than even odds for a cut early next year.

"February was an unusually weak number, having a bounce back number, the market was expecting that, but if you saw another number that was weak like that it probably would have thrown the market for a loop," said Joseph Amato, President and CIO of equities at Neuberger Berman in New York. GRAPHIC: Global currencies vs. dollar ,

“Numbers like this tell you there is still decent momentum here and you are shifting to more trendline growth than the more significant growth that we experienced in the US economy over the last 12 to 18 months.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39.95 points, or 0.15%, to 26,424.58, the S&P 500 gained 13.31 points, or 0.46%, to 2,892.7 and the Nasdaq Composite added 46.91 points, or 0.59%, to 7,938.69. The S&P 500 scored a seventh straight day of gains, its longest winning streak in 18 months.

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators will continue talks next week by video conference as they try to reach a deal to resolve the trade war, White House adviser Larry Kudlow said on Friday.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.09%, notching its best weekly performance in three weeks, and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.34% its second straight weekly gain. Better-than-expected data out of Germany, along with the U.S. jobs report, and a possibly delayed British departure from the European Union also helped boost risk appetite for European shares.

German industrial output rose 0.7% in February as mild weather helped a surge in construction activity, although manufacturing production slipped.

U.S. Treasury yields dipped, with the yield curve flattening as traders focused on the weaker portions of the payrolls report that showed wage growth slowed.

President Donald Trump said on Friday the Fed should lower rates, noting the jobs numbers showed the economy had performed well but adding that action by the U.S. central bank had really slowed down the economy.

In currencies, the dollar moved slowly higher for a third straight week of gains against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index rose 0.08%, with the euro down 0.03% to $1.1217.

U.S. crude settled up 1.6% at $63.08 and Brent settled at $70.34, its highest level in six months, up 1.4% on the day as the payrolls number put demand worries at bay.

(Courtesy of Reuters)

5 Things to Watch

Courtesy of Reuters

Panic over? World markets themes for the week ahead

1/ THE I WORD

As the U.S. yield curve makes up its mind whether to invert or not, investors seeking reassurance that we are in a Goldilocks era of non-inflationary growth will get to scour two monthly price gauges this week.

On Wednesday, the Labor Department is expected to report that its March Consumer Price Index rose 0.3 percent on the month and 1.8 percent over the year - a reading that would reinforce subdued underlying inflation and validate the Fed’s almost about-face after four hikes last year.

CPI - a proxy for overall inflation that factors into cost of living adjustments for Social Security - rose 1.5 percent year to February, the smallest increase since September 2016. The latest reading of the Fed’s favorite inflation measure rose 1.8 percent in the year to January, below its 2 percent target.

Fed officials have started alluding to a new economic reality of slowish growth and little upward price pressure. Even as wages creep higher, improved productivity curbs firms’ costs.

Minutes of the March Fed policy meeting, to be released on Wednesday, will be cross checked for references to the new “patient” approach and “muted” inflation. The March producer price index, a glimpse of pipeline price pressures, is scheduled for Thursday.

2/ MARIO TO THE RESCUE

Just a month since the European Central Bank put plans to normalize policy on hold and delayed a rate hike into 2020, further signs of weakness in the economy and a whiff of panic among investors puts the spotlight back on the central bank.

A woeful set of German industrial orders data this week pushed German Bund yields back into negative territory and though a U.S.-China trade deal could be in sight, it looks like difficult times ahead for Europe.

No policy changes are expected at Wednesday’s ECB meeting, especially since some board members are traveling to Washington for the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings.

But talk of tiered rates to ease pressure on banks, global recession fears, Brexit, and a sense of panic that has pushed 10-year German bond yields back below zero percent, all suggest ECB chief Mario Draghi’s news conference may prove lively.

Investors will also keep an eye out for further details on cheap loans known as the targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) — one of the few policy tools left in the kit after the end of QE — and what the ECB will do to incentivize banks to take it up.

3/ WATCH YOUR CHINA

An unexpected recovery in China factory activity surveys offered investors a glimmer of hope the stimulus injected in one of the world’s major growth engines may be yielding results.

Trade data due out on Friday could provide the next clue that could help investors regain confidence as they gauge whether the slowdown is bottoming out.

That said, the recovery remains feeble and analysts believe it is still highly-dependent on how the trade negotiations with Washington go.

Markets took some hope from an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday that Washington and Beijing could announce a trade deal within four weeks while Chinese President Xi Jinping was reported as saying progress was being made. But Trump also warned Beijing it would be difficult to allow trade to continue without a pact.

Many believe the Chinese economy may still need more stimulus either way. Looking at the pattern of past decisions by the People’s Bank of China, a decision to cut bank reserve requirements may be announced by mid-April, economists say.

4/ THE LONG GOODBYE

After British Prime Minister Theresa May’s request to the European Council to delay Brexit until up to June 30, focus now shifts to a meeting next week where EU leaders will discuss a proposal to offer Britain a flexible extension of up to a year.

After the British parliament failed to approve a withdrawal agreement, May started talks this week with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in the hope of breaking the Brexit deadlock, but markets are not getting too excited about it.

While one-month risk reversals for the pound, a gauge of demand for the British currency in the derivatives market, have rebounded from a 2-1/2 year low hit last month, they still remained far below levels seen earlier this year, indicating overall sentiment remained bearish.

Implied volatility measures also indicated caution with one-month gauges for the pound remaining elevated despite a dip this week compared to the euro and the Japanese yen.

5/ IS IT SPRING YET?

It is that time of year, when central bank governors, finance ministers, policy makers and investors from around the globe gather in Washington for the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. A Group of 20 central bankers and finance ministers meeting takes place on the sidelines.

There is no shortage of topics to talk about. Concerns over the health of the global economy amid trade wars and other political uncertainties such as Brexit have sent jitters through markets.

Major central banks’ efforts to navigate their way back to normal after years of low interest rates and easy money following the 2008 financial crisis have not been without bumps. Central bank independence has been questioned in many countries.

Speaking in the run up to the gathering of the great and good of policy making and finance, IMF chief Christine Lagarde has called the outlook for growth “precarious” and warned that years of high public debt and low interest rates over the past decade have left many countries with limited room to act when the next downturn arrives.

Economic Data Apr 8-14

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Hello to brighter morning mornings.