Many thanks to the crew who kept the threads humming while I had a brief break: @RubyRuby01and @ammie. Great effort (especially, Ruby, who seemed to run the show yesterday - champion). Thanks, both.
Outlook for the day: Cautiously positive after tariff exemptions helped Wall Street post a second day of gains.
ASX futures: up 18 points or 0.23%
Overnight themes:
US stocks rose for a second session after the White House carved out smartphones and computers from the full impact of new tariffs that would otherwise trigger price rises for American consumers.
The S&P 500 rallied 0.79% to its third gain in four sessions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 312 points or 0.79%. The Nasdaq put on 0.64% as Apple and other tariff-affected stocks posted gains.
Buyers were encouraged by a Customs announcement late Friday that smartphones, semiconductors and computers would be exempt from the "reciprocal" tariffs announced earlier this month. However, the White House appeared to back away from that statement, suggesting the tech products would not be entirely exempt, but rather "they are just moving to a different Tariff ‘bucket’,” according to a post on Truth Social by President Donald Trump.
The confusion did not prevent Apple advancing 2.21% overnight. The S&P tech sector gained 0.63%.
“The market believes that the administration is probably in some sort of retreat from their most-extreme tariff proposal. That’s incremental good news” - Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management (per CNBC).
Volatility subsided and treasury yields retreated, lifting rate-sensitive sectors, including real estate +2.15% and utilities +1.75%. The CBOE Volatility Index fell back towards 30 after spiking through 50 last week.
Goldman Sachs gained 1.93% after lifting its Q1 profit. A new US earnings season kicks into gear this week with updates from Netflix, Citigroup, Bank of America and UnitedHealth.
Gold backed off Monday's record high as US tariff exemptions for smartphones and computers encouraged traders to rotate into assets with better exposure to a stock market recovery. Gold futures settled 0.6% lower at US$3,226.30 an ounce. The spot price declined US$26.63 or 0.82% to US$3,209.92 after hitting a new high at US$3,245.42.
A three-year low in the US dollar index helped lift dollar-denominated commodity prices. Benchmark copper firmed 0.72% on the London Metal Exchange to US$9,220.50 a metric ton. Nickel gained 2.33%.
Iron ore edged higher in China after new bank loans rebounded. New loans increased more than expected last month, reversing February's sharp decline after Beijing signalled more stimulus support to offset the impact of US tariffs. Benchmark ore ended daytime trade on the Dalian Commodity Exchange 0.28% ahead at US$96.68 a metric ton. The Singapore ore benchmark advanced 0.6% to US$97.70.
"Market chatter of more and imminent stimulus measures from China is gaining traction" - Kelvin Wong, OANDA's senior market analyst, Asia Pacific (per Reuters).
Key events this week:
US quarterly reporting season: Bank of America, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson (tonight); Travelers, Alcoa (Wednesday); and Netflix, UnitedHealth and AmEx (Thursday).
Minutes from the recent RBA policy meeting - 11.30 am AEST
China GDP, industrial production, retail sales, etc - Wednesday
US retail sales - Wednesday
Speech by US Federal Reserve Chair Powell - Wednesday
March employment data - Thursday
Easter market holiday - Friday, Monday
S&P 500: up 43 points or 0.79%
Dow: up 312 points or 0.78%
Nasdaq: up 107 points or 0.64%
VIX: down 17.76% to 30.89
US 10-year treasury yield: down 10.5 points to 4.389%
Dollar: up 0.37% to 63.24 US cents
Iron ore (Dalian): up 0.28% to US$96.68
Brent crude: up 12 US cents or 0.2% to US$64.88
Gold (futures): down 0.6% to US$3,226.30
Gold (spot): down US$26.63 or 0.82% to US$3,209.92
Silver (spot): up 8 US cents or 0.23% to US$32.34
Palladium (spot): up US$48 or 5.39% to US$938
Antimony (China ore): up 0.07% to US$25,023
NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: up 1.15%
Bitcoin: up 1.94% to US$84,828
Copper (LME): up 0.72% to US$9,220.50
Nickel (LME): up 2.33% to US$15,370
Lithium carbonate (China spot battery grade): up 0.07% to 8,655 yuan
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: up 1.13%
Uranium (spot): steady at US$64.50
Global X Uranium ETF(URA): up 0.84%
BHP: up 2.3% (US); up 2.2% (UK)
