Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome. Outlook...

Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome.


Outlook for the day: Negative following sharp falls on Wall Street ahead of tonight's March jobs data.

ASX futures: down 63 points or 0.8%


Overnight themes:

• US stocks slump as soaring oil prices reignite fears of a resurgence in inflation and a delay to interest rate cuts. Selling is exacerbated by a warning from a Federal Reserve policy-maker that stalling inflation may mean no rate cuts this year.
• The Dow falls for a fourth straight session after earlier being up almost 300 points. A 0.9% morning gain on the S&P 500 turns into a 1.23% loss. The Nasdaq sheds 1.4% as tech leads a sell-off that sinks all sectors.
• Stocks give up initial gains as a rally in oil accelerates mid-session. Oil climbs to its highest since October after Israel threatens further action against Iran, even as the US calls for a ceasefire in the war with Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Iran had been "acting against us for years", and "those who harm us or plan to harm us, we will harm”. Brent crude settles above US$90 a barrel for the first time in six months.
• “It feels like the most likely path in the Middle East is for continued escalation in the Arab-Israeli conflict, and we think oil prices have the potential to go even higher in the near-term despite the recent strength if the current bellicose momentum continues” - Roth MKM analyst Leo Mariani (per Barron's).
• Treasury yields rally after Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari says sticky inflation could undermine the case for rate cuts this year.
• "If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all. There's a lot of momentum in the economy right now," he says during an interview.
• The S&P 500 has fallen for three of the last four sessions, while the Dow has yet to log a gain this quarter. Investors fear a strong March jobs report tonight could torpedo hopes for at least three rate cuts by year-end.
• "There's some nervousness coming into that [jobs] report" - Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist for Murphy & Sylvest (per Reuters).
• Sector losses range from 0.06% for the energy sector up to 1.72% for tech. Notable falls include: health -1.4%, financials -1.17% and materials -1.01%.
• Copper trades at its strongest in 14 months as the US dollar falls to a two-week low. Other base metals also log solid gains on the London Metal Exchange (LME) amid reports of speculative buying after a decline in European inflation appeared to clear the way for European rate cuts.
• "A notable surge in speculative activity on the LME, paired with expectations of relaxed monetary policy outlook in Europe, has propelled metal prices to their highest levels in several months" - Sucden Financial analysts (per Reuters).
• Gold suffers its first setback in eight sessions, but still logs its second-highest close on record. The yellow metal eases 0.3%, settling just above US$2,300 an ounce.
• Iron ore falls below US$100 a tonne in Singapore while Chinese markets are closed for a two-day holiday. Singapore futures drop 0.5% to their lowest in almost 10 months.

Key events today:

• Trade balance - 11.30 am AEDT
• US March jobs data (non-farm employment) - tonight

S&P 500: down 64 points or 1.23%

Dow: down 530 points or 1.35%

Nasdaq: down 228 points or 1.4%

Dollar: up 0.26% to 65.85 US cents

Iron ore (Singapore): down 0.5% to US$99.89

Brent crude: up US$1.30 or 1.5% to US$90.65

Gold: down US$6.50 or 0.3% to US$2,308.50

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: down 1.56%

Bitcoin: up 4.45% to US$68,801

Copper (LME): up 1% to US$9,355

Nickel (LME): up 2.11% to US$17,645

Uranium (spot price): steady at US$90

Lithium carbonate (China spot): up 0.07% to US$15,336

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: down 1.14%

BHP: down 1.89% (US); up 0.3% (UK)

Rio Tinto: down 2.01% (US); up 0.32% (UK)