Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and...

Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.


Outlook for the day: Positive following rallies on Wall Street and commodity markets after the US Federal Reserve signalled a possible rate cut next month.

ASX futures: up 17 points or 0.21%


Overnight themes:

• US stocks surged after the Federal Reserve left benchmark interest rates unchanged but opened the door to a September cut.
• The Nasdaq Composite soared 2.64% as traders snapped up battered chip stocks. The S&P 500 gained 1.58%. The tech-lite Dow added 0.24% as declines in healthcare providers and Microsoft offset rallies elsewhere.
• The Fed left the target federal funds rate at 5.25%- 5.5%, as widely expected, but indicated it could be ready to cut at its next meeting next month if inflation continues to recede. The Fed's rate statement indicated rising confidence that inflation is falling back to target.
• “If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September,” Chair Jerome Powell told reporters.
• Data earlier in the session showed wages growth slowed last month to a three-year low, supporting the case for falling inflation. Private job growth also slowed.
• Chip stocks led the charge following a strong trading update from Advanced Micro Devices. Nvidia rocketed up 12.81%. AMD gained 4.36%.
• A disappointing trading update from Microsoft was largely overlooked in the rates euphoria. Microsoft eased 1.08% as investors baulked at evidence of rising expenses to support the development of AI. Apple and Amazon, which report tonight, both rose.
• Growth stocks dominated sector gains. Tech put on 3.95%, consumer discretionary 1.79% and communication services 1.29%. Materials firmed 1.05%. Four sectors sat out the rally: health, real estate, consumer staples and financials.
• Oil mounted its strongest advance in almost six months following the assassination of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders in Iran and Lebanon. Brent crude surged US$2.09 or 2.7% to US$80.72 a barrel. The US crude benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, ran even harder, gaining 4.3% for its biggest gain since October.
• Gold settled at a fresh closing high as tensions in the Middle East added to tailwinds. Gold for December delivery settled US$21.90 or 0.9% ahead at US$2,473 an ounce, eclipsing the previous closing peak of US$2,467.80. The metal traded as high as US$2,474.30 but did not threaten the July 17 intraday high of US$2,488.40.
• “Heightened Middle East tensions and hopes for Fed rate cuts have restored gold” - Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity (per MarketWatch).
• Industrial metals rebounded after China's Politburo called for fresh measures to stimulate the economy. Weak factory data earlier this week stoked expectations that Chinese authorities will be forced to act. Copper bounced 2.99% on the London Metal Exchange. Nickel lifted 2.74%, aluminium 4.07%, tin 4.09%, zinc 1.67% and lead 3.17%.
• Iron ore rose in Singapore trade, but finished lower in China. Benchmark ore prices gained 1.57% in Singapore, boosted by hopes for further monetary stimulus in China. Ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange finished daytime trade 0.13% lower.

Key events today:

• Trade balance - 11.30 am AEST
• China manufacturing PMI - 11.45 am
• US manufacturing PMI - tonight

S&P 500: up 86 points or 1.58%

Dow: up 99 points or 0.24%

Nasdaq: up 452 points or 2.64%

Dollar: up 0.08% to 65.45 US cents

Iron ore (Dalian): down 0.13% to US$106.28

Brent crude: up US$2.09 or 2.7% to US$80.72

Gold: up US$21.10 or 0.9% to US$2,473

Silver: up 41 US cents or 1.44% to US$28.94

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: up 2.77%

Bitcoin: down 2.03% to US$64,850

Copper (LME): up 2.99% to US$9,240

Nickel (LME): up 2.74% to US$16,490

Lithium carbonate (China futures): down 1.96% to US$11,316

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: up 2.43%

Uranium (spot): up 3.75% to US$87

BHP: up 2.62% (US); up 2.48% (UK)

Rio Tinto: up 2.57% (US); up 1.83% (UK)