Day trading pre-market open August 15

Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome.


Outlook for the day: Tentatively positive after US stocks largely shrugged off a surge in wholesale inflation.

ASX futures: up 8 points or 0.09%


Overnight themes: ​

• US stocks closed mixed but little changed as investors largely looked past evidence that inflation could be back on the rise. ​
• The S&P 500 edged up 0.03% in choppy trade. The Dow closed just 11 points or 0.02% in the red after spending much of the session significantly lower. The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.01%. ​
• Stocks opened lower after the biggest surge in producer prices in three years prompted investors to revise expectations for interest rate cuts. Wholesale prices jumped 0.9% last month, three to four times as much as economists expected. Annual headline wholesale inflation climbed to 3.3%, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The market largely recovered as investors took the view the report was not enough to dash expectations that the Fed will cut next month. The odds on a September cut moderately only marginally to around 93% from nearer 95%. ​
• “It seems to be reasonably clear at this point that this wasn’t enough to get the Fed off of another cut, or get it going on a cutting cycle,” Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, told CNBC. “I think people are just like, yeah, this was not a great PPI print — certainly not what you want to see. But we’re going to want to see a couple of them before we really think that we’re getting sort of a reaccelerating inflation environment, which is really the thing that can knock the Fed off course.”​
• “The fact that PPI (wholesale inflation) was stronger-than-expected and CPI (consumer inflation) has been relatively soft suggests that businesses are eating much of the tariff costs instead of passing them onto the consumer,” Clark Geranen, chief market strategist at CalBay Investments, told CNBC. “Businesses may soon start to reverse course and start passing these costs to consumers.”​
• Market jitters were partly assuaged by fractionally-better-than-expected initial claims for unemployment benefits. First-time claims eased to 224,000 last week from 227,000 the week before.​
• Rate-sensitive small caps fared worse than their larger peers. The Russell 2000 index eased 1.24% following two days of strong gains. ​
• Trading volumes were lower than the recent average. Wall Street's "fear gauge", the VIX, ticked up 2.35% but remained near a multi-month low. ​
• Financials was the best of the sectors, gaining 0.55%. Health, consumer discretionary and communication services also posted gains. The night's biggest drags were industrials -0.88% and materials -0.81%.​
• Iron ore dropped almost 3% after the Chinese government suspended construction work to alleviate pollution ahead of the anniversary of the end of World War Two. Beijing will host a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary on September 3. “Chinese authorities have ordered the suspension of construction activity in at least 12 provinces before and around the event,” Atilla Widnell, managing director at Navigate Commodities, told Reuters. “As a result, it’s not surprising to see Shanghai rebar and DCE/SGX iron ore futures experiencing significant sell-offs.” Benchmark ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange declined 2.94% to US$108.06 per metric ton. BHP and Rio Tinto both fell in overseas trade overnight (details lower down). ​
• Gold declined as last night's "hot" US wholesale inflation report forced a reassessment of the pace and scale of future US rate cuts, boosting the greenback and treasury yields. (A higher dollar makes dollar-denominated assets more expensive for overseas buyers.) "Gold trades lower as the stronger than expected U.S. PPI print may lower rate cut expectations as they feed into a higher Core PCE inflation print for July as well, likely keeping the Federal Reserve cautious on rate cuts," Saxo Bank's head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen, told Reuters. "Overall, the print does not alter our bullish view on gold as the Fed eventually will have to choose between fighting inflation or supporting the economy." Spot gold retreated US$21.97 or 0.65% to US$3,334.50 an ounce. US gold futures settled US$25.30 or 0.7% lower at US$3,383.20. ​
• Copper retreated ahead of data today that is expected to show slower growth in Chinese factory activity. The official industrial production PMI is expected to have eased last month to year-on-year growth of 6% from 6.8% in June. Unemployment is tipped to creep higher. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange dipped 0.27% to US$9,777 a metric ton. ​
• Oil rebounded from a two-month low ahead of talks tonight between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that could lead to weaker sanctions on Russian crude. The two leaders meet in Alaska this evening as Trump pursues a campaign pledge to end Russia's war with Ukraine. Brent crude bounced US$1.17 or 1.88% to US$66.80 a barrel. ​

Key events today: ​

• Earnings season: Cochlear, Mirvac, HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT and Baby Bunting (source: CommSec) ​
• China industrial production, retail sales – 12 pm AEST ​
• US retail sales – tonight ​
• US preliminary consumer sentiment - tonight ​

S&P 500: up 2 points or 0.03%

Dow: down 11 points or 0.02%

Nasdaq: down 2 points or 0.01%

VIX: up 2.35% to 14.83

US 10-year treasury yield: up 4.5 points to 4.29%

Dollar: down 0.8% to 64.97 US cents

Iron ore (Dalian): down 2.94% to US$108.06

Brent crude: up US$1.17 or 1.88% to US$66.80

Gold (futures): down US$25.30 or 0.7% to US$3,383.20

Gold (spot): down US$21.97 or 0.65% to US$3,334.50

Silver (spot): down 50 US cents or 1.3% to US$38.01

Palladium (spot): up US$8.50 or 0.75% to US$1,137

Antimony (China ore): up 0.11% to US$19,812

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: down 0.26%

Bitcoin: down 4.07% to US$117,995

Copper (LME): down 0.27% to US$9,777

Nickel (LME): down 1.25% to US$15,050

Lithium carbonate (China spot battery grade): up 1.35% to US$10,091

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: down 2.37%

Uranium (spot): steady at US$72.50

Global X Uranium ETF (URA): down 1.06%

BHP: down 1.66% (US); down 1.2% (UK)

Rio Tinto: down 1.65% (US); down 1.72% (UK) ​