Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.
Outlook for the day: The ASX 200's extraordinary run looks set to end at ten wins in a row after US stocks sold off ahead of a speech tonight by Federal Reserve Chair Powell. A rising US dollar weighed on commodity prices.
ASX futures: down 43 points or 0.54%
Overnight themes:
- US stocks fell for only the second time in eleven sessions as treasury yields and the greenback rose ahead of tonight's address by Fed Chair Powell to the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium.
- Rate-sensitive growth stocks led the retreat as the S&P 500 declined 0.89%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.67%. The Dow skirted the worst of the selling, falling 0.43% as gains in financials and healthcare providers helped offset declines in Intel, Microsoft and Amazon.
- "There doesn't appear to be any kind of clear catalyst as to what's driving this sell-off. People may be trying to square positions a little bit ahead of Nvidia (earnings) next week, or risk-out ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech" - Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments (per Reuters).
- Investors expect Powell to use his address to the annual economic symposium tonight to reassure markets that the US central bank is ready to lower official rates. The key question now appears to be whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points. Comments from other Fed policy-makers overnight indicated the bank is preparing to lower rates.
- The yield on 10-year US treasuries climbed almost nine basis points after an increase in claims for unemployment benefits added to questions about the strength of the economy following a steep downward revision to employment growth reported on Wednesday. A report overnight showed first-time claims for jobless benefits ticked up 4,000 last week to 232,000, ahead of expectations.
- Financial markets have broadly welcomed signs of slowing in the US economy as bolstering the case for rate cuts, however equities suffered heavy losses earlier this month when a handful of reports suggested the economy might be tilting towards a recession. Wednesday brought news that 12 months of job gains through to March had been over-estimated by the biggest amount since the GFC, forcing a substantial downward revision.
- Tech was the biggest drag overnight, falling 2.13%. Falls were modest away from the three sectors dominated by the Magnificent Seven group of megacap market leaders. Materials eased 0.24%, industrials 0.18% and utilities 0.17%.
- Three S&P sectors posted gains: real estate +0.56%, financials +0.48% and energy +0.32%.
- Oil broke a four-day losing run, bouncing 2% from its lowest level since early January. Brent crude rallied US$1.55 to US$77.60 a barrel. Prices have been crunched this week by questions over demand as Chinese growth slows and higher rates impact western economies.
- Precious metals retreated as the US dollar rebounded and treasury yields rose. Gold futures settled US$30.80 or 1.2% lower at US$2,516.70 an ounce a day after closing at a new all-time high.
- "We have an uptick in the two-year yields and an uptick in the dollar index... Gold has had an incredible run three sessions ago. It made new all-time highs, so it's natural for traders to take some profits on this type of move" - Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures (per Reuters).
- Industrial metals also felt the heat from the rising greenback, which lifted prices for buyers using other currencies. Copper dropped 1.51% on the London Metal Exchange. Nickel gave up 1.87%, aluminium 0.67%, tin 0.92% and lead 1.39%.
- Iron ore prices continued to recover in China yesterday. Benchmark ore rallied 0.41% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange to a fourth straight gain. However, benchmark ore in Singapore reversed early gains to finish 1.12% lower.
Key events today:
- Speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole economic symposium - tonight
- US housing sales - tonight
S&P 500: down 50 points or 0.89%
Dow: down 178 points or 0.43%
Nasdaq: down 300 points or 1.67%
Dollar: down 0.67% to 67.04 US cents
Iron ore (Dalian): up 0.41% to US$102.33
Brent crude: up US$1.55 or 2.04% to US$77.60
Gold (futures): down US$30.80 or 1.2% to US$2,516.70
Gold (spot): down US$28.99 or 1.15% to US$2,483.75
Silver: down 62 US cents or 2.1% to US$28.98
NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: down 2.31%
Bitcoin: down 0.79% to US$60,540
Copper (LME): down 1.51% to US$9,120
Nickel (LME): down 1.87% to US$16,540
Lithium carbonate (China): steady at 73,500 yuan
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: down 2.28%
Uranium (spot): down 0.55% to US$81
BHP: down 1.92% (US); down 1.47% (UK)
Rio Tinto: down 1.03% (US); down 1.07% (UK)
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