Day trading pre-market open December 12

Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.


Outlook for the day: Modestly positive as slim gains on Wall Street help offset declines in iron ore, gold, copper and most metals.

ASX futures: up 13 points or 0.18%


Overnight themes:

• US stocks rise to fresh 2023 highs ahead of inflation data and a central bank meeting this week that will shape the outlook for interest rates. November consumer inflation figures drop tonight, followed by a Federal Reserve rates decision on Wednesday night.
• “No one expects a hike, but hotter-than-expected inflation readings could throw cold water on the idea that rate cuts are coming sooner rather than later” - Chris Larkin, head of trading and investing at E-Trade (per CNBC).
• Market pricing currently points to a 43% chance of a 25-point cut in March and a 75% chance by May. The odds on a March cut fell after November jobs data came in stronger than expected, indicating labour markets may not be slowing as fast as markets had previously priced in.
• Ten of eleven sectors advance, led by consumer staples +0.97% and industrials +0.9%. The financial sector gains 0.68%. Materials firms 0.71%. Communication services is the only drag as Google parent company Alphabet and Facebook parent Meta Platforms both decline.
• The Dow is lifted by gains for Intel, Honeywell and Nike.
• A buyout offer from private investors lifts department store chain Macy's 19.47%.
• Negative Chinese economic data weighs on iron ore, copper, nickel and most other industrial metals. Weak domestic demand helps drag consumer prices lower last month. A decline in producer prices also worsens as deflationary pressures appear to build. The reports follow a decision by ratings agency Moody's last week to downgrade China's credit rating to reflect a deteriorating growth outlook.
• Gold falls back under US$2,000 an ounce as last week's better-than-expected US jobs data forces traders to push back the expected timing of the first rate cut next year. The US dollar and treasury yields edge higher overnight.
• Bitcoin briefly tumbles more than 8%, denting a rally that has lifted the cryptocurrency almost 80% since mid-September. Prices fall as low as US$40,228 after peaking at US$44,701 last week.

Key events today:

• Speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock to the AusPayNet Summit in Sydney - 9.20 am AEDT
• December consumer sentiment - 10.30 am
• November business confidence - 11.30 am
• US November consumer inflation report (CPI) - tonight

S&P 500: up 18 points or 0.39%

Dow: up 157 points or 0.43%

Nasdaq: up 29 points or 0.2%

Dollar: down 0.18% to 65.67 US cents

Iron ore (Dalian): down 0.37% to US$133

Brent crude: up 19 US cents or 0.25% to US$76.03

Gold: down US$20.80 or 1.03% to US$1,993.70

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: down 1.12%

Bitcoin: down 6.6% to US$40,927

Copper (LME): down 1.25% to US$8,343

Nickel (LME): down 1.61% to US$16,535

Uranium: up 0.6% to US$83.50

Lithium carbonate (China spot): down 2.95% to US$16,008

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: down 0.81%

BHP: down 0.61% (US); down 1.12% (UK)

Rio Tinto: down 1.45% (US); down 1.77% (UK)