Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.
Outlook for the day: Modestly positive as slim gains on Wall Street help offset declines in iron ore, gold, copper and most metals.
ASX futures: up 13 points or 0.18%
Overnight themes:
- US stocks rise to fresh 2023 highs ahead of inflation data and a central bank meeting this week that will shape the outlook for interest rates. November consumer inflation figures drop tonight, followed by a Federal Reserve rates decision on Wednesday night.
- “No one expects a hike, but hotter-than-expected inflation readings could throw cold water on the idea that rate cuts are coming sooner rather than later” - Chris Larkin, head of trading and investing at E-Trade (per CNBC).
- Market pricing currently points to a 43% chance of a 25-point cut in March and a 75% chance by May. The odds on a March cut fell after November jobs data came in stronger than expected, indicating labour markets may not be slowing as fast as markets had previously priced in.
- Ten of eleven sectors advance, led by consumer staples +0.97% and industrials +0.9%. The financial sector gains 0.68%. Materials firms 0.71%. Communication services is the only drag as Google parent company Alphabet and Facebook parent Meta Platforms both decline.
- The Dow is lifted by gains for Intel, Honeywell and Nike.
- A buyout offer from private investors lifts department store chain Macy's 19.47%.
- Negative Chinese economic data weighs on iron ore, copper, nickel and most other industrial metals. Weak domestic demand helps drag consumer prices lower last month. A decline in producer prices also worsens as deflationary pressures appear to build. The reports follow a decision by ratings agency Moody's last week to downgrade China's credit rating to reflect a deteriorating growth outlook.
- Gold falls back under US$2,000 an ounce as last week's better-than-expected US jobs data forces traders to push back the expected timing of the first rate cut next year. The US dollar and treasury yields edge higher overnight.
- Bitcoin briefly tumbles more than 8%, denting a rally that has lifted the cryptocurrency almost 80% since mid-September. Prices fall as low as US$40,228 after peaking at US$44,701 last week.
Key events today:
- Speech by RBA Governor Michele Bullock to the AusPayNet Summit in Sydney - 9.20 am AEDT
- December consumer sentiment - 10.30 am
- November business confidence - 11.30 am
- US November consumer inflation report (CPI) - tonight
S&P 500: up 18 points or 0.39%
Dow: up 157 points or 0.43%
Nasdaq: up 29 points or 0.2%
Dollar: down 0.18% to 65.67 US cents
Iron ore (Dalian): down 0.37% to US$133
Brent crude: up 19 US cents or 0.25% to US$76.03
Gold: down US$20.80 or 1.03% to US$1,993.70
NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: down 1.12%
Bitcoin: down 6.6% to US$40,927
Copper (LME): down 1.25% to US$8,343
Nickel (LME): down 1.61% to US$16,535
Uranium: up 0.6% to US$83.50
Lithium carbonate (China spot): down 2.95% to US$16,008
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: down 0.81%
BHP: down 0.61% (US); down 1.12% (UK)
Rio Tinto: down 1.45% (US); down 1.77% (UK)
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