Day trading pre-market open February 4

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    Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.


    Outlook for the day: Positive after a pause in US tariffs on Mexico prompted Wall Street to pare back heavy initial losses.

    ASX futures: up 39 points or 0.47%


    Overnight themes
    :
    • US stocks finished in the red but well off session lows after the US and Mexico struck a deal to delay US tariffs on Mexican imports by a month.
    • The S&P 500 plunged 1.9% to a two-week low in early trade before mid-morning news of the tariff pause triggered a steep partial reversal. The broadest of the US stock benchmarks finished with a loss of 0.76%. The Dow slashed a morning loss of more than 650 points to 123 points or 0.28% by the close. The Nasdaq shed 1.2%.
    • The early slump came as Wall Street reacted to weekend confirmation that the White House intended to press ahead with tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. Last night's partial recovery followed an announcement that US President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum reached a deal to delay the new tariffs for a month while Mexico deployed 10,000 National Guard members to police the US border. Further negotiations will continue during the month-long pause to address US grievances related to the flow of drugs and migrants across the border, as well as Mexico's concerns. The iShares Mexico ETF bounced 2.49%.
    • Trump was also due to hold talks with the leaders of Canada and China, encouraging speculation that a damaging trade war can still be averted. The Australian dollar bounced 0.7% to 61.85 US cents, rebounding from yesterday's post-pandemic low.
    • “Call us deluded, but we still think that permanent tariffs on the U.S.‘s allies (Canada, Mexico) will not be a thing. That’s because concessions are an ‘easier’ way to deal with Trump’s ‘problems’ (from a cost-benefit and game-theoretic perspective), and Trump likes to make ‘deals’. Political and market pressure will also weigh on the parties to make concessions, as in 2018” - Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie (per CNBC).
    • Growth stocks dragged in a mixed market. The S&P tech and consumer discretionary sectors both lost more than 1.3%.
    • Defensive consumer staples were the best of the sectors, gaining 0.68%. Other pockets of strength included utilities +0.46%, energy +0.42% and health +0.4%. The materials sector edged up 0.05%. Financials eased 0.43%.
    • Haven-buying helped sweep gold to a new record. Spot gold hit an all-time high at US$2,830.40 an ounce before amending its rise to US$2,817.69, a gain of 0.73%. Gold futures gained 0.9%.
    • Copper fell to a four-week low in London before rebounding. Benchmark copper dipped under US$9,000 a metric ton, then reversed to a gain of 0.69% at US$9,110 as the US dollar trimmed its rally. Aluminium and Zinc also advanced. Nickel, lead and tin declined.
    • “Base metals are highly dependent on growth factors, and trade tensions create a negative feedback loop on global growth. The market is anticipating retaliatory measures, particularly from China, which could further impact metal prices negatively” - Kelvin Wong, OANDA senior market analyst, Asia Pacific (per Reuters).

    Key events today:
    • Earnings: Nick Scali, Region Group (source: Market Index)
    • Mainland China resumes trading after week-long Lunar New Year break
    • US earnings: Alphabet, AMD, Amcor - tonight
    • US job openings - tonight

    S&P 500: down 46 points or 0.76%

    Dow: down 123 points or 0.28%

    Nasdaq
    : down 235 points or 1.2%

    Dollar: up 0.71% to 61.85 US cents

    Iron ore (Singapore): down 0.7% to US$105.02 (China trade suspended for Lunar New Year)

    Brent crude
    : up 29 US cents or 0.38% to US$75.96

    Gold
    (futures): up US$22.10 or 0.8% to US$2,857.10

    Gold (spot): up US$20.53 or 0.73% to US$2,817.69

    Silver (spot): up 22 US cents or 0.71% to US$31.50

    NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: up 1.65%

    Bitcoin: up 3.77% to US$101,270

    Copper (LME): up 0.69% to US$9,110

    Nickel (LME): down 0.71% to US$15,122

    Lithium carbonate (China spot battery grade): untraded at 9,458 yuan (last day Lunar New Year holiday)

    Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: down 2.12%

    Uranium (spot): up 0.35% to US$71.50

    Global X Uranium ETF (URA): down 1.1%

    BHP
    : down 0.69% (US); down 0.78% (UK)

    Rio Tinto: down 0.98% (US); down 1.13% (UK)
 
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