Morning traders. Thank you to the crew that kept the joint kicking on Thursday while I skived off to South Australia for vino and shenanigans: @speckledjim1, @just browsing and @RubyRuby01. Very much appreciated.
Outlook for the day: Positive as commodity gains help offset a mixed close on Wall Street on Friday.
ASX futures: up 14 points or 0.19%
Friday themes:
- Wall Street finishes mixed as inflation continues to cool and a disappointing outlook from Intel dents AI mania.
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq snap six-session win streaks. The Dow edges higher as a strong forecast and record high from AmEx helps offset Intel's 11.91% plunge.
- Traders welcome further evidence that inflation is slowing. Headline annual inflation, as measured by personal consumption expenditures (PCE), holds steady at 2.6% in December. However, core annual inflation (excluding volatile food and energy) slows to 2.9% from 3.2% in November. The December core PCE price index reading is the lowest since March 2021.
- The inflation data bolster confidence that the US economy can avoid recession after a separate report on Thursday night showed the economy expanded faster than expected last quarter.
- "These are good numbers. Taken with yesterday’s GDP numbers, this report strengthens the possibility of a soft landing, which continues to gain traction" - Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities (per Reuters).
- Chip makers weigh on the Nasdaq and S&P 500 after revenue forecasts from Intel and KLA Corp miss expectations. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index drops 2.9%.
- Energy and health are the best of the sectors, gaining 0.76% and 0.59%, respectively. Tech, real estate and industrials are the biggest drags.
- Despite Friday's mixed performance, the S&P 500 gains 1.06% for the week. The Nasdaq advances 0.94% and the Dow gains 0.65%.
- Oil caps its best week since mid-October with another up-leg on Friday. Brent crude climbs 1.4% to US$83.55 a barrel. For the week, the global benchmark gains 6.4% as China stimulus news joins US stockpile drawdowns and Middle East supply worries as tailwinds.
- Economic news-flow steps up dramatically this week after the holiday season slowdown. Highlights in the week ahead include: domestic inflation and retail sales data; a US rates decision and January employment reports; and two sets of Chinese manufacturing figures. US earnings season rolls on with trading updates from Apple and other heavyweights.
Key events this week:
- December retail sales - Tuesday
- US consumer confidence, job openings - Tuesday
- Q2 consumer price index (consumer inflation) - Wednesday
- China manufacturing - Wednesday
- US rates decision - Wednesday
- US private payrolls - Wednesday
- Building approvals, business confidence - Thursday
- China manufacturing (alternative take) - Thursday
- US manufacturing - Thursday
- Q2 producer price index (wholesale inflation) - Friday
- US January employment report - Friday
S&P 500: down 3 points or 0.07%
Dow: up 60 points or 0.16%
Nasdaq: down 55 points or 0.36%
Dollar: up 0.08% to 65.78 US cents
Iron ore (Dalian): up 0.1% to US$139.43
Brent crude: up US$1.12 or 1.4% to US$83.55
Gold: down 50 US cents or 0.01% to US$2,017.30
NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: down 0.59%
Bitcoin: down 0.82% to US$41,874
Copper (LME): down 0.27% to US$8,545.50
Nickel (LME): up 0.5% to US$16,785
Uranium (spot price): down 1.5% to US$101
Lithium carbonate (China spot): down 0.22% to US$13,452
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: up 0.18%
BHP: up 0.42% (US); down 0.31% (UK)
Rio Tinto: up 0.96% (US); up 1.24% (UK)
Day trading pre-market open January 29
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