Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and...

Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.


Outlook for the day: Negative after Wall Street starts 2024 in retreat. The ASX 200 ended yesterday just 1.1 points from an all-time closing high.

ASX futures: down 77 points or 1.01%


Overnight themes:

• US stocks start the year mostly lower as investors take some profits from last year's bull run, treasury yields rebound and a broker downgrade for index heavyweight Apple weighs on the tech sector.
• The Nasdaq suffers its heaviest fall since October. The S&P 500 also declines. A late, late bounce lifts the Dow back into positive territory.
• Stocks struggle as the US 10-year treasury yield touches a two-week high. The 10-year rises to 3.977% before paring its advance to 3.94%, a gain of almost six basis points. Rising yields reflect moderating expectations for official rates this year. The odds on a rate cut in March have drifted below 70% from nearer 75%, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
• A sharply-divided market sees gains in energy and mostly defensive sectors outweighed by sharp falls in rate-sensitive growth stocks. The tech sector slumps 2.58%. Health, utilities, energy and consumer staples all rally more than 1.1%.
• Apple drops 3.58% after Barclays lowers its rating to "Underweight", citing underwhelming iPhone demand. The rest of the so-called 'Magnificent 7' tech stocks (Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet and Meta) also decline.
• The Dow is cushioned by gains in defensive stocks, including Merck, UnitedHealth and Walgreens.
• The major indices were coming off nine straight weeks of gains that lifted the Dow to an all-time high and the S&P 500 to within 0.2% of a record.
• "What we saw in December was kind of a sloppy rally where people seem to be wanting to things on their books maybe or cover shorts. That rally lasted a little bit too long" - Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading (per Reuters).
• Crypto stocks buck the downtrend as Bitcoin hits US$45,500 a coin for the first time since April 2022. The crypto rally comes amid speculation the US regulator will approve a Bitcoin ETF (exchange-traded fund).
• Iron ore surges to a 28-month high in China after December factory activity expands faster than expected. The Caixin/S&P Global China manufacturing purchasing managers' index inches up to 50.8 from 50.7 in November, beating the consensus forecast of 50.4. Buyers are also encouraged by a pledge from President Xi Jinping on Sunday that China will "consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery". China-traded ore jumps 2.93% to the highest since August 2021. Singapore ore touches an 18-month high.
• Oil falls despite escalating tensions in the Red Sea, a major shipping route. Prices briefly rally, then fade after Iran sends a warship to the area. The cargo has been plagued by Houthi rebel attacks on shipping. Brent crude trades as high as US$79.06 a barrel before rolling over to a loss of 1.49% at US$75.89.

Key events today:

• US job openings, manufacturing PMI - tonight
• Minutes from last month's Federal Reserve policy meeting - tonight

S&P 500: down 27 points or 0.57%

Dow: up 26 points or 0.07%

Nasdaq: down 245 points or 1.63%

Dollar: down 0.71% to 67.59 US cents

Iron ore (Dalian): up 2.93% to US$140.58

Brent crude: down US$1.15 or 1.49% to US$75.89

Gold: up US$1.60 or 0.1% to US$2,073.40

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: down 1.54%

Bitcoin: up 2.66% to US$44,759

Copper (LME): down 0.31% to US$8,532.50

Nickel (LME): down 0.24% to US$16,580

Uranium: steady at US$93

Lithium carbonate (China spot): down 2.76% to US$13,614.45

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: down 1.26%

BHP: down 0.56% (US); up 0.39% (UK)

Rio Tinto: down 0.27% (US); up 0.84% (UK)