Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome. Outlook...

Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome.


Outlook for the day: Negative as a new fiscal year gets underway with soft leads from Wall Street.

ASX futures: down 35 points or 0.45%


Friday themes:

• US stocks gave up early gains as investors weighed increased uncertainty over the presidential election and news that inflation was unchanged in May, keeping alive the prospect of interest rate cuts this year.
• The major benchmarks rose in early trade before rolling over as growth stocks and utilities turned negative. The S&P 500 gave up 0.41%, the Dow 0.12% and the Nasdaq 0.71%.
• Headline annual price inflation was flat in May at 2.6%, soothing market concerns following a run of hotter-than-expected results. Core prices edged up 0.1%, in line with expectations. The odds on a September rate cut climbed to 66% following the release.
• "This was a very Fed-friendly report that should keep the September rate cut in play, while at the same time increasing investor confidence that moderate economic growth can be maintained even as rates stay higher for longer" - Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets (per Reuters).
• However, treasury yields reversed early weakness as the session wore on, pressuring megacap tech stocks. Notable declines included Amazon -2.32%, Alphabet -1.84% and Apple -1.63%. Nvidia eased 0.36%.
• Analysts pointed to increased uncertainty over the outcome of the November election after President Joe Biden's performance in a debate with Republican rival Donald Trump prompted some analysts to call for the Democrats to replace the incumbent as their presidential candidate.
• "People are trying to think about what's going to happen with the presidential election. So instead of uncertainty decreasing after the debate, it's increased" - Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments (per Reuters).
• Four sectors resisted the sinking tide: real estate +0.62%, energy +0.42%, financials +0.38% and industrials +0.08%.
• Friday wrapped up a strong first six months for the major benchmarks. The Nasdaq Composite has gained 18.1% since Jan 1, thanks in large part to demand for AI chip stocks. The S&P 500 is up 14.5%. The Dow lags with a gain of 3.8%.
• Iron ore closed out a losing month with a mild up-tick on Friday. Benchmark prices in China edged up 0.18% at the close of daytime trade on the last session of the week. However, prices declined 7.1% across June amid a seasonal lull in demand and rising portside stocks.

Key events this week:

• June job ads - 11.30 am AEST
• China June manufacturing - 11.45 am
• US manufacturing - tonight
• Minutes from last month's RBA policy meeting - Tuesday
• Panel discussion involving Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde - Tuesday
• US job openings - Tuesday
• May retail sales - Wednesday
• May building approvals - Wednesday
• US private payrolls - Wednesday
• US services PMI - Wednesday
• Minutes from last month's Fed policy meeting - Wednesday
• Trade balance - Thursday
• US Independence Day holiday - Thursday
• US June employment report - Friday

S&P 500: down 22 points or 0.41%

Dow: down 45 points or 0.12%

Nasdaq: down 126 points or 0.71%

Dollar: down 0.1% to 66.77 US cents

Iron ore (Dalian): up 0.18% to US$113.52

Brent crude: up 2 US cents or 0.02% to US$86.41

Natural gas (US futures): down 3.13% to US$2.60

Gold: up US$3 or 0.13% to US$2,339.60

Silver: up 13 US cents or 0.44% to US$29.13

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: down 0.64%

Bitcoin: up 1.6% to US$61,908

Copper (LME): up 0.88% to US$9,599

Nickel (LME): up 1.1% to US$17,291

Uranium (spot price): up 1.44% to US$86.50

Lithium carbonate (China spot): down 0.21% to US$12,563

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: down 1.57%

BHP: up 0.62% (US); up 0.98% (UK)

Rio Tinto: up 0.17% (US); up 0.48% (UK)