Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and...

Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.


Outlook for the day: Positive according to futures trade heading into the weekend. However, Saturday's assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump injects uncertainty as a new trading week gets underway. Some commentators forecast a "flight to safety" (US dollar, gold, bonds); others believe the incident merely cements Trump's position as favourite to win the November election, boosting stocks and crypto.

ASX futures: up 51 points or 0.64%


Friday/weekend themes:

• US stocks rallied to fresh highs as investors looked past earnings disappointments to the prospect of rate cuts later this year.
• The Dow scored its first record since May, rising 0.62% and closing above 40,000 despite a late fade. The blue-chip average was boosted by gains for Intel, IBM and Home Depot as this year's rally continued to broaden from the megacap tech leaders that set the pace through the first six months.
• The S&P 500 hit an all-time high before a final-hour sell-down trimmed its advance to 0.55%.
• The Nasdaq put on 0.63% as Apple, Nvidia and Tesla led a rebound from Thursday's sharp drop.
• The market took in its stride a soft start to the Q2 reporting season and mixed wholesale inflation data.
• The S&P bank index dropped 1.65% as investors marked down JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup following trading updates. Wells Fargo skidded 6.02% after reporting a dip in profit and pressure on interest income.
• Producer prices increased by 0.2% last month, ahead of expectations. However, core producer inflation was softer than expected, continuing a downward trend that has helped clear the path towards interest rate cuts. The odds on a September rate cut were around 94% on Friday, up from 78% before an unexpected drop in consumer prices reported earlier in the week.
• Small caps continued to outperform. The Russell 2000 rallied 1.09% to a third straight gain.
• "That rotation into small- and mid-caps is still continuing and that's a positive sign overall" - Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group (per Reuters).
• Ten of eleven S&P sectors advanced, led by consumer discretionary +0.96% and materials +0.93%.
• The outlook for the week ahead was muddied by events in Pennsylvania on Saturday, when former President Donald Trump was hit in the ear by a bullet during a campaign rally. Bitcoin surged in what some commentators interpreted as a sign of markets pricing in a Trump victory.The last assassination attempt on a US president or presidential candidate (Reagan, 1981) saw a short-term drop in stocks and a rise in treasury yields and the US dollar.
• BHP and Rio Tinto rose in overseas trade as iron ore pared a losing week. Benchmark ore prices bounced 0.3% in China, shaving their fall for the week to 3.2%. Price action this week is expected to be dictated by developments at the Third Plenum, where the Chinese government will unveil economic plans and policies for the next few years.
• Trade on major commodity indices was mixed. The Bloomberg Commodity Index finishing little changed, up 0.04% and near late-April lows. Crude, gold and silver all ticked lower. Copper and nickel advanced in London.

Key events this week:

• China GDP, factory output, retail sales, etc - 12 pm AEST
• US manufacturing - tonight
• Address and Q&A with US Federal Reserve Chair Powell - tonight
• US retail sales - Tuesday
• June employment report - Thursday
• ECB rates decision - Thursday

S&P 500: up 31 points or 0.55%

Dow: up 247 points or 0.62%

Nasdaq: up 115 points or 0.63%

Dollar: up 0.17% to 67.76 US cents

Iron ore (Dalian): up 0.3% to US$113.84

Brent crude: down 37 US cents or 0.43% to US$85.03

Gold: down US$1.20 or 0.05% to US$2,420.70

Silver: down 51 US cents or 1.61% to US$31.16

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: up 0.42%

Bitcoin: up 3.65% to US$60,826

Copper (LME): up 0.92% to US$9,877

Nickel (LME): up 0.28% to US$16,856

Lithium carbonate (China spot): % to US$

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: up 1.37%

Uranium (spot): steady at US$87

BHP: up 1.79% (US); up 1.6% (UK)

Rio Tinto: up 0.65% (US); up 0.19% (UK)