Day trading pre-market open July 16

Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.


Outlook for the day: Mildly negative as the market considers a breather following two days of strong gains and back-to-back record highs. Wall Street kicked on overnight. Commodity markets were mixed as a rising US dollar offered a headwind.

ASX futures: down 4 points or 0.05%


Overnight themes:

• US stocks closed at new highs as investors bet on a second Trump presidency and looser, more market-friendly fiscal policies following Saturday's unsuccessful assassination attempt. However, the major benchmarks once gain finished well below their intraday peaks.
• The Dow rallied 0.53% to a new all-time closing high. Goldman Sachs put on 2.57% after more than doubling its profit last quarter.
• The S&P 500 hit a fresh intraday high before trimming its gain to 0.28% and closing just below last week's record finish. The Nasdaq put on 0.4%.
• Buying interest was buoyed by rising bets on a September interest rate cut and by expectations that Saturday's shooting increases the likelihood that Donald Trump will regain the US presidency. Political analysts believe a second Trump presidency would likely mean less red tape for corporations.
• Trump was officially confirmed at the Republican National Convention as the GOP's presidential candidate for a third time. He announced former marine and venture capitalist Senator JD Vance will be his running mate.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told an audience in Washington that recent inflation data added "somewhat" to central bank confidence that inflation is falling back to target. "In the second quarter, actually, we did make some more progress," Powell told the Economic Club of Washington. "We've had three better readings, and if you average them, that's a pretty good place."
• Small caps continued to play catch-up with the top end of the market. The Russell 2000 index of small caps climbed 1.8% to a fourth straight gain and its highest level since 2022. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said small caps were one of the winners from the first Trump presidency.
• The closely-followed Dow Jones Transportation Average also had a strong night, rising 1.67% to a three-month high. The average is used by some traders as an indicator for the health of the US economy.
• Energy was the pick of S&P sectors, rising 1.56%. Also strong in a split market were financials +1.42%, industrials +0.7% and tech +0.41%. Drags included materials -0.3%, consumer staples -0.6% and utilities -2.39%.
• A rising US dollar and soft Chinese economic growth figures weighed on base metals. A report yesterday showed China's economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter, down from growth of 5.3% the previous quarter and below expectations for an expansion of around 5.1%. Copper and nickel both lost more than 1% in London. Aluminium, tin and lead also declined.
• Iron ore rallied as traders bet this week's Third Plenum will deliver more stimulus in China. The plenum, a gathering of Chinese officials to map out social and economic policy for the next five years, got underway yesterday. Benchmark ore prices in China gained 1.03%. Singapore ore put on 0.69%.

Key events today:

• US retail sales - tonight

S&P 500: up 16 points or 0.28%

Dow: up 211 points or 0.53%

Nasdaq: up 74 points or 0.4%

Dollar: down 0.16% to 67.6 US cents

Iron ore (Dalian): up 1.03% to US$114.83

Brent crude: down 18 US cents or 0.21% to US$84.85

Gold: up US$8.20 or 0.34% to US$2,428.90

Silver: down 23 US cents or 0.74% to US$30.94

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: down 0.27%

Bitcoin: up 4.33% to US$63,581

Copper (LME): down 1.1% to US$9,768

Nickel (LME): down 1.03% to US$16,750

Lithium carbonate (China spot): down 0.56% to US$12,281

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: down 2.2%

Uranium (spot): steady at US$87

BHP: down 1.62% (US); down 1.66% (UK)

Rio Tinto: down 1.42% (US); down 1.29% (UK)