Day trading pre-market open July 29

Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.


Outlook for the day: Negative after Wall Street shrugged at the latest trade deal. The ASX 200 rallied 0.36% yesterday in likely anticipation of a brighter response to weekend news that the US and European Union had secured a trade agreement.

ASX futures: down 60 points or 0.69%


Overnight themes: ​

• US stocks finished little changed as the announcement of a US-European Union trade deal failed to generate significant follow-through buying ahead of a big week of corporate earnings, economic data and a Federal Reserve rates decision. ​
• The S&P 500 secured a sixth straight record close by a whisker, gaining a point or 0.02%. Gains in Nvidia and Tesla helped the Nasdaq to a new closing high, adding 0.33%. The Dow declined 64 points or 0.14%.​
• Stocks opened higher, but struggled to retain initial gains following weekend news that the EU had agreed to a 15% tariff on most European imports into the US. While the final tariff was half the 30% rate threatened by the White House, France branded the deal a "submission". Elsewhere, US and Chinese negotiators resumed talks aimed at securing a deal ahead of an August 12 deadline. ​
• “Despite recent positive developments on the trade front, the full impact of tariffs remains a question mark,” Daniel Skelly, managing director at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, told CNBC. “With the market pushing to new highs and volatility falling to its lowest levels since February, two of the major challenges facing investors are complacency and the urge to chase the market.”​
• A huge week ahead includes trading updates from four of the Magnificent Seven group of market leaders, plus quarterly earnings from more than 150 other S&P 500 companies, jobs and inflation data, consumer confidence, manufacturing and a Fed rates meeting.​
• Energy was the pick of the sectors, gaining 1.15% as oil kicked higher (more below). Also ahead: tech +0.77% and consumer discretionary +0.69%. Significant drags included materials -1.44% and real estate -1.75%. ​
• Oil surged after the Trump administration turned up the heat on Russia to agree a ceasefire with Ukraine, and as a US-European Union trade deal cleared another possible impediment to global economic growth. President Donald Trump said he would give Moscow 10-12 days to reach a truce with Ukraine or he would act on previously-threatened "secondary tariffs". Brent crude settled US$1.60 or 2.34% higher at US$70.04 a barrel. "Until now, traders had largely discounted the likelihood of meaningful follow-through on sanctions, but today’s headlines are prompting a reassessment of potential supply disruptions or increased shipping costs from rerouted trade flows,” Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, told Bloomberg.​
• Gold slid to a near three-week low as fears of a global trade war diminished with the US-EU deal, lifting the US dollar and dulling demand for hedges against risk. Spot gold declined US$31.69 or 0.95% to US$3,305.91 an ounce. US gold futures settled US$24.40 or 0.7% lower at US$3,311.20. "I think the more trade announcements we get, the more the dollar increases. These tariff deals are dollar-friendly, lowering the allure of gold and driving the sell-off amid a risk-on sentiment," Marex analyst Edward Meir told Reuters.​
• Iron ore fell for a fourth session in China as an explosive rally in other steel-making components cratered. Coking coal ended daytime trade on the Dalian Commodity Exchange 11% lower and "limit down" after surging 33% last week. Coke also traded limit down, shedding 7.98%. The reversals came after the exchange announced a limit on positions in an attempt to cool a rally fuelled by Beijing's crackdown on over-capacity in key sectors. Benchmark DCE ore ended daytime trade 1.75% lower at US$109.50 per metric ton. Steel benchmarks also retreated. ​
• Industrial metals mostly drifted lower in subdued trade on the London Metal Exchange as traders awaited factory data this week from China and the US, a US rates decision, and confirmation that the US and China have agreed an extension to their August 12 deadline for a trade deal. LME copper dipped 0.07% to US$9,762.50 per metric ton. Aluminium, nickel, zinc and tin also retreated. "Manufacturing PMIs are important. China not only consumes, it also exports large amounts of goods," an unnamed copper trader told Reuters. China releases its July manufacturing PMI on Thursday. ​

Key events today: ​

• US earnings (Boeing, Procter & Gamble, UnitedHealth, UPS) - tonight ​
• Us job openings - tonight​
• US consumer confidence - tonight​

S&P 500: up 1 point or 0.02%

Dow: down 64 points or 0.14%

Nasdaq: up 70 points or 0.33%

VIX: up 0.67% to 15.03

US 10-year treasury yield: up 2.5 points to 4.417%

Dollar: down 0.72% to 65.23 US cents

Iron ore (Dalian): down 1.75% to US$109.50

Brent crude: up US$1.60 or 2.34% to US$70.04

Gold (futures): down US$24.40 or 0.7% to US$3,311.20

Gold (spot): down US$31.69 or 0.95% to US$3,305.91

Silver (spot): down 2 US cents or 0.06% to US$38.16

Palladium (spot): up US$33.50 or 2.66% to US$1,292.50

Antimony (China ore): down 0.11% to US$19,826

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: down 2.35%

Bitcoin: down 0.91% to US$117,863

Copper (LME): down 0.07% to US$9,762.50

Nickel (LME): down 0.23% to US$15,230

Lithium carbonate (China spot battery grade): up 1.26% to 9,100 yuan

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: down 3.07%

Uranium (spot): steady at US$71.13

Global X Uranium ETF (URA): down 2.01%

BHP: down 1.64% (US); down 1.22% (UK)

Rio Tinto: down 1.44% (US); down 0.88% (UK) ​