Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and...

Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.


Outlook for the day: Mildly negative after US stocks eased ahead of this week's major economic news and earning updates, and a rates decision tonight.

ASX futures: down 7 points or 0.08%


Overnight themes: ​

• US stocks retreated from record levels as corporate earnings disappointed and two days of trade talks with China ended without a resolution. ​
• The S&P 500 declined 0.3% ahead of tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate announcement and earnings from Microsoft and Facebook-owner Meta Platforms. The Dow gave up 205 points or 0.46%. The Nasdaq Composite shed 0.38%.​
• “The market has had a strong run and is now in digestion mode. Some technical indicators suggest a pullback may be coming,” Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, told CNBC. “This is a pause, a period to focus on individual names driven by earnings, while the broader market watches how the Fed’s narrative evolves.”​
• The latest round of negotiations with China in Stockholm ended without a breakthrough ahead of the US's self-imposed August 12 deadline to reach a deal. A potential three-month extension to talks depends on President Donald Trump, US negotiators said. Trump “has final say on all the trade deals”, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC. The latest round of negotiations was the third since May. Bessent said the trade teams would likely meet again in 90 days. ​
• The night's drags included United Parcel Service (UPS), down 10.57% after declining to issue revenue forecasts as tariff uncertainty muddied its outlook. Among other companies reporting earnings, Boeing shed 4.37%, Procter & Gamble 0.32% and Whirlpool 13.43%. Earnings season steps up a gear this week with updates from Microsoft and Meta tonight, and Apple and Amazon tomorrow. ​
• The Federal Reserve gathered for a two-day policy meeting that is expected to conclude tonight with the central bank leaving benchmark rates unchanged at a range of 4.25% - 4.5%. The night's economic data was mixed: consumer confidence up, job openings down. ​
• A decline in treasury yields helped lift the real estate sector +1.7% and utilities +1.17%. Also ahead: energy +0.96% and consumer staples +0.77%. Notable losses included industrials -1.14%, financials -0.56% and materials -0.33%.​
• Oil marched higher for a second night in the wake of US President Donald Trump's threat to hit Russia with "secondary sanctions" if it fails to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine within 10-12 days. Brent crude rallied US$2.47 or 3.53% to US$72.51 a barrel, adding to a 2.4% advance on Monday. The upswing also follows new European Union sanctions on Russia. ​
• Gold posted its first gain in five sessions, steadying near technical support around the US$3,300 per ounce level. Spot gold lifted US$11.44 or 0.35% to US$3,326.14 an ounce. US gold futures settled US$12.80 or 0.4% higher at US$3,324. Prices fell on Monday night to their lowest since July 9 as a US-European Union trade deal undermined demand for havens. Buyers returned overnight as US-China trade talks continued and the Federal Reserve commenced a policy meeting. "Given the risk of a breakdown in [China trade] talks, some investors still feel that it may be appropriate to have some exposure to haven assets in case things turn sour again," Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, told Reuters.​
• Iron ore trade mixed in different jurisdictions as trade talks between Beijing and Washington cast a cloud over the economic outlook. Benchmark ore firmed 0.3% on the Singapore Exchange to US$98.98 per metric ton. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-trade contract gave up early gains to finish daytime trade 1.75% lower at US$109.52. ​
• Copper steadied after three days of losses in the US ahead of the introduction of a 50% US tariff on imports from August 1. US copper futures firmed 1.05% to US$5.669 per pound on Comex, a day after briefly plunging more than 6% to a three-week low. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange overcame early weakness to edge up 0.1% to US$9,803 per metric ton. "Traders are cautious and closely watching U.S.-China trade talks and developments in U.S. copper import tariffs," a Shanghai-based analyst at a futures company told Reuters. ​

Key events today: ​

• Q4 consumer inflation (CPI) - 11.30 am AEST​
• US earnings (Microsoft, Meta Platforms) - tonight​
• US Federal Reserve interest rate decision - tonight​
• US advance GDP - tonight​
• US private payrolls - tonight​

S&P 500: down 19 points or 0.3%

Dow: down 205 points or 0.46%

Nasdaq: down 80 points or 0.38%

VIX: up 6.32% to 15.98

US 10-year treasury yield: down 9 points to 4.326%

Dollar: down 0.15% to 65.12 US cents

Iron ore (Dalian): down 1.75% to US$109.52

Brent crude: up US$2.47 or 3.53% to US$72.51

Gold (futures): up US$12.80 or 0.4% to US$3,324

Gold (spot): up US$11.44 or 0.35% to US$3,326.14

Silver (spot): up 3 US cents or 0.08% to US$38.20

Palladium (spot): down US$14 or 1.08% to US$1,281.50

Antimony (China ore): down 0.14% to US$19,798

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: up 1.03%

Bitcoin: down 0.64% to US$117,202

Copper (LME): up 0.1% to US$9,803

Nickel (LME): up 0.62% to US$15,325

Lithium carbonate (China spot battery grade): down 1.15% to 8,995 yuan

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: down 0.74%

Uranium (spot): steady at US$71

Global X Uranium ETF (URA): down 1.81%

BHP: up 0.82% (US); up 0.72% (UK)

Rio Tinto: up 0.13% (US); up 0.2% (UK) ​