Morning traders. Sincere thanks to the legends who kept the forum ticking over while I spent some needed time on family. Those who served: @ammie, @ttward, @RubyRuby01 and of course, @shovel40. Very much appreciated. (I did take a genuine break from the screens, so apologies if I've missed anyone.) And thanks to all who contributed - this forum is only ever as good as its contributors.
Outlook for the day: Neutral after US stock futures and European stocks fell ahead of this week's deadline for US trade deals.
ASX futures: unchanged
Friday/weekend themes:
European shares and US futures retreated on Friday as traders reduced risk as the clock ticked down towards Wednesday's deadline for trading partners to reach agreements with the White House to avoid punishing tariff hikes. Regular trade on Wall Street was suspended for the Independence Day long weekend.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 declined 0.48%. Major mainland European stock benchmarks shed between 0.61% and 0.8%. Britain's FTSE 100 index closed flat.
US stock futures tracked lower after President Donald Trump said his administration would start sending letters that day to countries stating their new tariff rates when a 90-day pause on "Liberation Day" tariff hikes ends on Wednesday. The White House has yet to reach deals with the European Union, India, Japan or South Korea. S&P 500 futures dropped 0.64%. Dow futures gave up 251 points or 0.56%. Nasdaq futures shed 0.68%.
Markets were also reacting to news that Trump's "big, beautiful" tax and spending bill had passed the House, clearing the way for Trump to sign it into law later that day. The bill faced opposition because it added to the nation's growing debt. Tesla CEO Elon Musk - a noted critic of the legislation - later announced he would launch a new political party, the America Party - to challenge the existing two-party hegemony.
Miners bore the brunt of Friday's setback in Europe, falling 1.1%. The tech sector lost 0.8%.
Oil eased ahead of a weekend meeting where the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies surprised the market by announcing plans to restore production more aggressively than expected. Saturday's meeting agreed to increase global supply by 548,000 barrels per day next month, exceeding a 411,000 bpd hike anticipated by the market. The latest increase will restore 2.2 million barrels bpd that was cut from the market in 2023 to support prices. Brent crude dipped 50 US cents or 0.7% on Friday to US$68.30 a barrel.
Base metals retreated as traders booked profits in low-volume trade ahead of Wednesday's trade deadline. Copper dropped 0.9% on the London Metal Exchange to US$9,864.50 a metric ton, falling further from a three-month high of US$10,020.50 set earlier in the week. Nickel, aluminium, zinc, lead and tin also declined.
Iron ore posted a second week of gains after Beijing called for new measures to reduce price-cutting between competing companies. Traders hope new legislation will reduce steel over-supply and improve margins in China. Benchmark ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchanged firmed 0.62% on Friday to US$102.23 a metric ton. For the week, ore prices lifted almost 3%.
Gold edged higher as the prospect of further US trade turmoil rekindled demand for havens. Spot gold lifted US$8.97 or 0.27% to US$3,335.24 an ounce. US gold futures edged up US$3.60 or 0.11% to US$3,346.50.
Key events this week:
June job ads - 11.30 am AEST
RBA interest rate decision and statement - Tuesday
June business confidence - Tuesday
China June inflation - Wednesday
Deadline for US trade deals - Wednesday
Minutes from June US Federal Reserve policy meeting - Wednesday
US unemployment benefit claims - Thursday
Stoxx 600: down 0.48%
S&P 500: US markets closed
Dow: US markets closed
Nasdaq: US markets closed
VIX: US markets closed
US 10-year treasury yield: 4.351%
Dollar: up 0.17% to 65.6 US cents
Iron ore (Dalian): up 0.62% to US$102.23
Brent crude: down 50 US cents or 0.7% to US$68.30
Gold (futures): up US$3.60 or 0.11% to US$3,346.50
Gold (spot): up US$8.97 or 0.27% to US$3,335.24
Silver (spot): up 8 US cents or 0.21% to US$36.93
Palladium (spot): down US$2.50 or 0.22% to US$1,147.50
Antimony (China ore): down 0.03% to US$19,826
NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: US markets closed
Bitcoin: up 0.57% to US$108,762
Copper (LME): down 0.9% to US$9,864.50
Nickel (LME): down 1.04% to US$15,290
Lithium carbonate (China spot battery grade): up 0.29% to 7,671 yuan
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: US markets closed
Uranium (spot): steady at US$77
Global X Uranium ETF(URA): US markets closed
BHP: down 0.3% (UK)
