Outlook for the day: The ASX 200 looks primed for a third day of gains after US stocks continued to recover from multi-month lows overnight.
ASX futures: up 53 points or 0.67%
Overnight themes:
US stocks rose for a second session as a modest rebound in retail spending helped investors look past recession and trade war worries that fuelled a four-week market rout.
The S&P 500 advanced 0.64% as a broad rally lifted all but one sector. The Dow gained 0.85%. The Nasdaq firmed 0.31% in afternoon trade after struggling for much of the morning.
“We’re in a near-term counter-trend rally” - Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research (per CNBC).
Retail sales improved 0.2% last month, partly reversing a 1.2% contraction in January. While the rebound fell short of economists' expectations, traders appeared relieved that the number was not worse following weeks of stock market turmoil and negative headlines around trade and economic growth. Excluding car sales, the increase was in line with expectations.
Other data was less supportive. Rising costs dragged optimism among housebuilders to a seven-month low. Factory activity in New York state suffered its biggest contraction in almost two years.
Also affecting sentiment: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would not rule out a US recession. Bessent said there were "no guarantees" a recession would be avoided as the White House slashed government spending.
Real estate, energy and consumer staples were the pick of the sectors, all gaining at least 1.5%. The financial and materials sectors both gained around 1.1 - 1.2%. The night's only drag was consumer discretionary -0.44%.
Gold settled at a new record as uncertainty over the US economic outlook continued to support havens. Gold futures closed US$5 or 0.2% higher at US$3,006.10 an ounce. Spot gold was lately up US$17.27 or 0.58% at US$3,000.59.
"Should economic data continue to soften and the global tariff war escalate, gold will continue to benefit" - analysts at Heraeus Metals (per Reuters).
Iron ore retreated from a two-week high after soft Chinese housing data dented confidence in the outlook for steel demand. New home prices and new construction starts both declined last month despite government stimulus efforts and promises of more. A separate report showed crude steel output was 1.5% smaller through the first two months than the same period last year. Benchmark ore declined 1.14% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange to US$107.63 a metric ton. The Singapore benchmark shed almost 1.8%.
Copper and aluminium were boosted by a weaker greenback. Benchmark copper firmed 0.86% on the London Metal Exchange to US$9,864.50 a metric ton. Aluminium gained 0.35%. Nickel, zinc and tin declined.
Key events today:
Speech at a banking summit by RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter - 10.20 am AEDT
US housing starts, building permits - tonight
S&P 500: up 36 points or 0.64%
Dow: up 353 points or 0.85%
Nasdaq: up 55 points or 0.31%
VIX: down 5.79% to 20.51
US 10-year treasury yield: down 1 point to 4.308%
Dollar: up 0.99% to 63.88 US cents
Iron ore (Dalian): down 1.14% to US$107.63
Brent crude: up 49 US cents or 0.69% to US$71.07
Gold (futures): up US$5 or 0.2% to US$3,006.10
Gold (spot): up US$17.27 or 0.58% to US$3,000.59
Silver (spot): up 9 US cents or 0.24% to US$33.87
Palladium (spot): up US$1 or 0.1% to US$958.50
Antimony (China ore): up 2.94% to US$18,687
NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: up 2.73%
Bitcoin: up 1.23% to US$84,085
Copper (LME): up 0.86% to US$9,864.50
Nickel (LME): down 0.85% to US$16,410
Lithium carbonate (China spot battery grade): up 0.32% to 9,148 yuan
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: up 1.86%
Uranium (spot): steady at US$62.88
Global X Uranium ETF(URA): up 3.1%
BHP: up 2.26% (US); up 1.39% (UK)
