The market is often trying to predict what will happen. The original talk of coronavirus was 100,000 deaths in Oz, millions of cases, and total lockdowns meaning that every single thing was shut.Prediction: total doom. That saw the panic buying of toilet paper (etc), and the steep plunge as everyone fled for the exit. It appears as though the bottom was found March 23rd, and there has been gradual recovery since then. The recovery has been on the back of stimulus packages, and things not being quite as severe as originally anticipated. Nobody is saying that we are out of the woods, as evidenced by XJO being well below 6000. But the market seemed to take out all its angst in the first couple of weeks, with an absolutely remarkable plunge. My expectation is slow and steady recovery as things begin to open up again bit by bit. A vaccine would expedite matters, but even without one, things can be controlled.
That's my reasoning for avoid bbus/bboz since mid march. I could well be wrong (Friday had me very nervous), it's all a matter of formulating what you see happening, and trading accordingly.
