Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and...

Morning traders. Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.


Outlook for the day: Soft as a new month gets underway with weak leads from Wall Street as the US went into a long weekend.

ASX futures: down 25 points or 0.28%


Friday/weekend themes: ​

• US stocks declined on Friday as AI stocks remained under pressure and inflation data showed consumer prices on the rise, but likely not by enough to undermine expectations of a rate cut this month. ​
• The S&P 500 dropped 0.64% as declines in Big Tech outweighed gains in more than half of all sectors. The Nasdaq Composite gave up 1.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 92 points or 0.2%. US markets will remain closed tonight for the Labor Day public holiday. ​
• AI-related stocks weighed on the market as Nvidia fell for a third day since delivering a quarterly trading update. The chip-maker's shares declined 3.32% after the Wall Street Journal reported China's Alibaba was manufacturing more advanced chips to plug a gap left by White House obstacles to Nvidia supplying the Chinese market. Dell tumbled 8.88% as investors baulked at signs of rising costs for manufacturing AI-optimised servers. Broadcom, Microsoft and other companies seen as highly leveraged to the AI boom also fell. ​
• "Today is just weakness in the top of the market, in tech," Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments, told Reuters. "This is not the first time that we've had some worries about over-investment in AI, lack of monetization opportunities and that type of thing."​
• The odds on a US rate cut this month held around 87% despite news that consumer prices increased in July at the fastest pace since February. The Federal Reserve's favoured inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, showed an annual gain of 2.6%, in line with expectations. Core PCE rose to 2.9%. “Today’s in-line PCE Price Index will keep the focus on the jobs market. For now, the odds still favor a September cut,” Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, told CNBC.​
• The tech sector was the biggest drag on the market, falling 1.63%. Industrials and utilities were also weak. A split market saw solid gains for health +0.73%, consumer staples +0.64% and real estate +0.55%, as well as more modest upticks for financials +0.21% and materials +0.02%.​
• Donald Trump's trade tariff program ran into legal trouble late on Friday when the US Court of Appeals ruled most were illegal. A divided court ruled that a 1977 law used by the Trump administration was most likely not intended by Congress to be used to impose tariffs. However, the court ruled that existing tariffs could stay in place until October 14 to allow the White House to appeal the ruling. Trump accused the judges of being "radical left". "If these Tariffs ever went away, it would be a total disaster for the Country. It would make us financially weak, and we have to be strong," he posted on Truth Social. ​
• Iron ore wrapped up a positive week with another step higher on Friday as daily hot metal output in China (an indicator of demand for ore) remained solid despite looming production pauses in the key steel-making hub of Tangshan for environmental reasons ahead of Wednesday's Beijing parade to mark the end of WW2. Average daily hot metal output dipped just 0.3% last week from the week. Portside ore stocks shrank 0.4%. Benchmark ore rallied 0.72% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange on Friday to US$110.10 a metric ton. The advance expanded the benchmark's weekly gain to 2.3%. The Singapore ore benchmark eased around 0.5% on the day but was ahead around 3% for the week. ​
• Copper hit a five-week high amid signs of improving Chinese demand. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 2.4% last week. Benchmark copper rallied 0.86% to US$9,902 per metric ton on Friday for an August gain of around 3%. "Part of it is because the dollar is a bit weaker. But there has also been some strong data recently, such as upward revision of U.S. second-quarter GDP growth," Dan Smith at Commodity Market Analytics, told Reuters. "We are also heading for September, which tends to be a better month for demand than the summer period."​
• Gold jumped as a rise in US inflation failed to dissuade investors that the Federal Reserve will lower official rates this month. The Fed's preferrred measure of inflation rose in July, but not by enough to dash hopes for a September rate cut. "We have expectations of a Fed rate cut, or potentially two, throughout this year, (which is) generally supportive for commodity prices across the board, including gold and silver," David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, told Reuters. Spot gold rallied US$31.20 or 0.91% to US$3,448.50 an ounce. Gold futures settled 1.2% higher at US$3,516.10. ​
• Oil trimmed a gain for the week ahead of the traditional end of the US summer driving season (a period of strong historical demand). Today's Labor Day public holiday marks the end of the US summer and a downturn in road trips. Brent crude settled 50 US cents or 0.7% lower at US$68.12 a barrel on Friday, but still gained around 0.6% for the week. ​
• With the full-year earnings season largely over and done, economic data takes on greater significance this week. A big week of reports includes updates on domestic growth, US jobs and Chinese manufacturing. More information directly below. ​

Key events this week: ​

• Job ads - 11.30 am AEST ​
• Building approvals - 11.30 am​
• Company operating profits - 11.30 am​
• China manufacturing PMI - 11.45 am​
• US Labor Day holiday (markets closed) - tonight​
• Current account - Tuesday​
• US manufacturing - Tuesday​
• Q4 GDP - Wednesday​
• China services PMI - Wednesday​
• Speech by RBA Chair Bullock - Wednesday​
• US job openings - Wednesday​
• Trade balance - Thursday​
• US private payrolls - Thursday​
• US services PMI - Thursday​
• US August employment report - Friday​

S&P 500: down 42 points or 0.64%

Dow: down 92 points or 0.2%

Nasdaq: down 250 points or 1.15%

VIX: up 6.44% to 15.36

US 10-year treasury yield: 4.233%

Dollar: up 0.15% to 65.46 US cents

Iron ore (Dalian): up 0.72% to US$110.10

Brent crude: down 50 US cents or 0.7% to US$68.12

Gold (futures): up US$41.80 or 1.2% to US$3,516.10

Gold (spot): up US$31.20 or 0.91% to US$3,448.50

Silver (spot): up 66 US cents or 1.69% to US$39.74

Palladium (spot): up US$3 or 0.27% to US$1,106

Antimony (China ore): up 0.24% to US$19,553

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: up 3.33%

Bitcoin: up 0.21% to US$108,960

Copper (LME): up 0.86% to US$9,902

Nickel (LME): up 1.04% to US$15,421

Lithium carbonate (China spot battery grade): down 0.19% to US$9,857

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: up 1.54%

Uranium (spot): up 2.02% to US$76.03

Global X Uranium ETF (URA): down 0.76%

BHP: down 0.62% (US); down 0.48% (UK)

Rio Tinto: down 0.25% (US); up 0.11% (UK) ​