Hello hello, it's good to be back. I tried to stay off HC as...

Hello hello, it's good to be back.

I tried to stay off HC as much as possible while in Japan, but saw enough to see things seemed to run incredibly smoothly here, thanks to a superb couple of weeks from @poyndexter and @Darkstone. Great effort, both. (Thank you also to @R_Soul and @just browsing, who I think also chipped in? Apologies if that's incorrect or if I missed anyone else.) Tough acts to follow. (If anyone has developed a taste for it, I am open to doing less here!)


Outlook for the day: Positive as the curtain falls on another strong month, and China stimulus plans continue to drive gains in commodity prices and miners.

ASX futures: up 22 points or 0.27%


Friday themes:

• US stocks posted a third straight weekly advance despite a mixed end to the week as cooling inflation boosted rate-cut hopes.
• The Dow rallied 0.33% to a record close on Friday as value stocks outperformed the growth stocks that dominate the other two major stock benchmarks.
• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were dragged lower by a 2.17% decline in Nvidia. The S&P 500 dropped 0.13%. The Nasdaq gave up 0.39%.
• Small caps outperformed after the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge edged up 0.1% last month, in line with expectations. Year-on-year price growth of 2.2% was weaker than expected, supporting the case for further rate cuts. The Russell 2000 index of small caps gained 0.67%.
• A separate report showed American consumers were more optimistic last month than economists expected. The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment measure firmed to 70.1 from 66 in August, beating expectations for a reading around 69.3.
• The odds on another super-sized half-point rate cut next Fed meeting climbed from even to 52.1% following the twin reports.
• “The market at this point... [is] pretty much pricing in a soft landing, and pricing in that we have defeated inflation, and that the Fed will be able to lower rates without causing a bunch of harm to the economy” - Liz Young Thomas, head of investment strategy at SoFi (per Reuters).
• Energy and utilities were the pick of the S&P sectors, gaining 2.11% and 1.01%, respectively. Financials, industrials, real estate and communication services also finished positive. Tech was comfortably the biggest drag, falling almost 1%.
• BHP and Rio Tinto rallied in overseas trade as China stimulus news earlier in the week helped iron ore rise for a fourth session. Benchmark ore in China gained more than 12% for the week. Singapore ore was up more than 14%.
• Gold's record run took a breather as traders took a little money off the table ahead of Friday night's US inflation data. Gold futures eased 0.23%. Spot gold prices declined 0.53%. Despite the setback, the yellow metal remained on track for its best quarterly return since 2016.
• Copper pared its best week in four months, which followed fresh China stimulus efforts. Benchmark prices eased almost 1% on the London Metal Exchange on Friday, taking a little of the gloss of a week that saw prices advance almost 6% across the week.
• Oil mounted a modest rebound at the end of a grim week dominated by reports that leading producer Saudi Arabia might walk away from voluntary production cuts that have propped up crude prices this year. Brent crude bounced 0.5% on Friday, trimming its loss for the week to 3.4%.

Key events this week:

• Private-sector credit - 11.30 am AEST
• China manufacturing/services PMIs - 11.30 am and 11.45 am
• Penal discussion headlined by US Federal Reserve Chair Powell - tonight
• Retail sales - Tuesday
• Building approvals - Tuesday
• US manufacturing PMI - Tuesday
• US job openings - Tuesday
• China market holiday - Tuesday - Friday
• US private payrolls - Wednesday
• Trade balance - Thursday
• US unemployment claims - Thursday
• US services PMI - Thursday
• US jobs report - Friday

S&P 500: down 7 points or 0.13%

Dow: up 138 points or 0.33%

Nasdaq: down 71 points or 0.39%

Dollar: down 0.07% to 69.04 US cents

Iron ore (Dalian): up 4.24% to US$107.44

Brent crude: up 38 US cents or 0.5% to US$71.98

Gold (futures): down US$6.20 or 0.23% to US$2,688.90

Gold (spot): down US$14.18 or 0.53% to US$2,688.40

Silver (spot): down 36 US cents or 1.11% to US$31.62

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: down 3.12%

Bitcoin: up 0.27% to US$65,928

Copper (LME): down 0.97% to US$9,982.50

Nickel (LME): up 1.5% to US$16,996

Lithium carbonate (China): up 0.67% to 75,550 yuan

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: up 3.41%

Uranium (spot): up 0.61% to US$82.25

Global X Uranium ETF (URA): down 0.14%

BHP: up 1.81% (US); up 2.57% (UK)

Rio Tinto: up 0.68% (US); up 0.99% (UK)