Morning traders.Thanks loungers, especially @Ravgnome and @Patterns.
On the home run at hump day in my last week … hope highlandlad is enjoying a well-deserved break.
A request: If anyone thinks I have incorrectly quoted any commodity prices, please reply with a link to a site where I can find the correct end of day values.
Outlook for the day: Positive on the back of overnight US markets and the rosy afterglow still radiating from yesterday’s announced broad based China stimulus measures … but some nervousness awaiting todays RBA CPI print
ASX futures: up 8 or 0.30% to 8230 (7.20am 25/9)US futures: DOW (+0.15%), S&P (0+0.28%), NAS(+0.52%) as at 7.20am 25/9
Overnight themes:
- All major US indexes made gains, including the DJT (Dow Transports) sub-index which closed up +1.67%, now having clawed back about three quarters of a 3.5% loss on Monday. In DOW theory, DJT is often the harbinger of things to come in wider markets, although there can be periods of divergence. Gains were pared back after a mid-session surprise drop in a consumer confidence index to 98.7 from a consensus expectation of 104, raising concerns weakening consumer demand
- The S&P 500 ended the session up 0.25%, at a new ATH of 5,732.93
- The Nasdaq closed up 0.56%, still just over 3% below its ATH
- The Dow closed up 0.20% at another ATH of 42,208, its 4th consecutive close above 42,000. The advance/decline ratio was an unconvincing 0.57. Top gainers included Caterpillar, Home Depot and Salesforce which combined to add +195 DOW points, and the standout decliner was Visa which alone accounted for a loss of -109 Dow points due to an anti-trust suit launched yesterday
- The big drivers of US markets were (1) announcement of broad-based stimulus in China (a positive) and (2) the mid-session consumer confidence index which surprised to the downside, weakening to 98.7 from a consensus estimate of 104. Markets immediately trended down to lose early solid gains on concerns about the ongoing strength of consumer demand
- Solid gains in technology, consumer cyclicals, basic materials, modest gains in communication, real estate, industrials and energy, losses in health care, financial services and construction (finance.yahoo.com)
- Iron ore closed up substantially on China stimulus news (6.20%, SGX 62% Fe Fines)
- Crude gained overnight after 2 down days, with Brent/WTI both up about 1.50%
Key events today:
- US: New Home Sales aftermarket open tonight. Fed Heads hit the hustings this week with no fewer than 14 speaking engagements (Fed Kugler tonight). Given the recent 0.5% rate cut, and market perceptions on this still divergent, Fed Head utterings this week have potential to move markets.
- Australia: RBA monthly CPI data out 11.10am AEST, expected to fall from 3.5% to around 3.0% (tradingeconomics.com)
- China: Peoples Bank of China MLF announcement (tradingeconomics.com)
S&P 500: up 14.36 or + 0.25% to 5733
Dow: up 83.57 or +0.30% to 42,208
Nasdaq: up 100.25 or 0.56% to 18,075
CBOE VolatilityIndex (VIX): down 0.50(-3.15%) to 15.39, continuing the downtrend over the last week
Dollar: up, 68.919 US cents (7.13am 25/9)
Iron ore (Dalian): Up 45k yuan to 723k yuan, +6.6%% (dce.com.cn) onChina stimulus news
Iron Ore (SGX62% Fe Fines): up 6.20%to $US96.45 (6.36am 25/9, barchart.com) on China stimulus news
Brent crude: up US$1.15 or + 1.54% to US$74.34
WTI crude: up US$1.03 or + 1.45% to US$71.38
Gold (futures): up US$30.60 or 1.13% to US$2,682.50 (6.56am 25/9, marketwatch.com)
Gold (spot): up US$30.60 or 1.20% to US$2,657.71 (silverprice.org)
Silver (futures): up US$1.37 or +4.46% to US$32.475 (6.56am 25/9, marketwatch.com)
Silver (spot): up US$1.43 or +4.67% US$31.11(silverprice.org)
NYSE Arca Gold Bugs: HUI Gold Index: 326.45, down -2.30 or -0.70%(closed 23/9)
Bitcoin: US$64,259 (trades 24/7, price 7.02am Wed 25/9 cf Tue close)
Copper (LME): up 2.85% to US$9821.00 (24/9 lme.com)
Nickel (LME): up 1.12% to US$16,735 (24/9 lme.com)
Lithium carbonate (China): unchanged at 74,200 yuan (highlandlad recommended site – updated 23/9)
Lithium: unchanged at 72,500 yuan (6.29am 25/9marketindex.com)
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF: 39.47, up 2.21 or 5.93%(finance.yahoo.com)
Uranium (spot): down US$ - 0.10 to US$79.35 (marketindex.com, last 6.32am25/9)
BHP: 5.06% (US); up 4.31% (UK)
Rio Tinto: up 4.4% (US); up 4.54% (UK)
FMG: up 3.37% (US … FSUGY ADR)
