Acadia Daybue Guidance and Actual US$ sales:2023Look at the...

Acadia Daybue Guidance and Actual US$ sales:2023

Look at the attached dodgy chart tracking patient numbers. I have varied it based on data known now with actual, Acadia forecasts and actual vs acadia forecasts.

If the Q3 trajectory continues it could hit 2000 patients by the end of a full 4 Qrts of sales. Or close to that by end of March Qtr 2024.

Somewhere around 1200 may be possible by end Q4 which is not even a full 3 Qtrs. Based on Acadia actual sales so far, their forecasts and their under estimation of sales.

I have plotted roughly, actual so far,(black line) with Acadia forecasts and with Acadias undershooting forecast adjusted as higher forecast patient numbers.52 weeks a year.(colours)

Estimates: Treatment average cost US$7212 per week per patient.
US$93750 per quarter per patient.

Q1 guidance for Q2 - Nil
Q2 sales US$23.2m (Daybue only became available 17 April: Initial 11 weeks of sales in the Quarter)
Estimated 247 patients for the quarter.

Q3 guidance US$45-55m
Q3 sales US$66.9m (288% sales increase of US$43.7m)
(122%-149% above high/low guidance)
= estimated 714 patients for the quarter
= estimated 467 patient increase 289% increase Q2 to Q3

Q4 guidance US$80-87.5m
= 853 - 933 patients
If previous 122%-149% above high/low overshoot guidance is maintained then patient numbers will be approx
= 1138 - 1271 for Q4
US$106.75m - US$119.2m in Sales











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