Was all dressed up in my smelly old bear suit yesterday waiting for open to place a Big Short to match the Big Red Day yesterday and the power went out along the whole street. Soooo Sooo lucky.
Lesson for the Day.
If HLL's mental picture for the day is wildly different to yours - recheck your assumptions.
Big one to note is price at open relative to traditional support lines. Particularly if the price crosses the upper or lower Bollinger bands as it did yesterday, then the probability of a retracement is High - even if it is the greatest day ever or the collapse of civilization as we know it.
I also have penciled into my market observations diary that the probability of a bounce/fade is proportional to the gap between previous days close and open. Lets see if it is a reasonable rule
Anyway lesson learned and the fates thanked today we have.
AUD Up mildly
DOW up mildly
Gold Down.
US Basic Materials Up 1.4%
US Financials Down a smidgin.
Mindset for the day as of 8:00 am
Hard to call today and I am still smarting from yesterday. There is no real lead from either the futures, dow or estimated preopen. Propen reddish, Dow uppish, futures reddish.
So perhaps another day of morning volatility and a fade or bounce after 11:00. Watch closely for 10:30 and 11:00 am reversals. These seem to be common of late.
As before LME Warehouse Stocks continuing climb to the rafters - Aluminium looking even more interesting from a Warehouse view.
The XJO (daily) is still in the lower channel, the 100 day MA looks attractive as does the SAR and lower Bollinger so I am still somewhat bearish here. I am not seeing anything to say that it is going to bounce back up over the Mid Bollinger just yet.
The weekly chart is where all the action is. It is just on the Mid Bollinger support line, RSI and stochastics are 50'ish, so it could go either way.
If I was in a Bullish frame of mid I would be calling the end of the retracement and placing my long term entries just above where we are.
If a Bearish view I would be setting my longer term entries just below where we are.
So in short we are within a week of where everything could change. Which given the last month or so of sliding sideways through time wouldn't be soon enough.
USD Spot Price
5 Year Warehouse Levels
