daytrade diaries... december 14, page-11

Morning All,

I posted this over the weekend, and though it would be of benefit here.

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Trying to get my head around where we are at as far as the next rally or pull back and this is what I have come up with.. well with the US markets anyway as we dont see to want to follow them regardless of what they do.




I have draw in blue lines the trend channel since June 2009. Some including myself were suggesting that this was a bearish rising wedge, but now it seems to have found more of a channel formation which is a good thing!

I have also drawn in a bright pink line above the bottom blue line which shows what I would consider the zone where it could go either way.. its a risk/reward area which I think should be considered carefully when taking positions here.

Interestingly enough we have been going through a decent 20 day sideways movement or consolidation period. Back in August we saw something similar which was 16 or so days (so slightly shorter).

Between these two sideways movements we have seen 3 very similar rallies which are illustrated by the pink arrows known as speed angles. Though these rallies seem to have been longer then the shorter rallies (like blue speed angles) after the sideways consolidations. Well I dont know, but we will soon find out leading into Xmas.

MACD and stochs look very good, and as you can see if history repeats we should see the next leg up for at least another 300 point gain on the 250pt gain on the DJIA. This would bring up once again to the top of the trend channel, and also at the major resistance from back in June to Sept 2008 @ 10700. Who knows where we will go from here!
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Also we need to consider as HLL mentioned the rising US $. Its a worry for our market of course, as a strong US$ leads to weak commodity prices. How bad will this effect the prices is anyones guess, but it still needs to be considered. Here is the US$ chart. Looks like a buy to me, which is a worry for the Australian equities (commodities in particular)..unless we see a false break or some sort of decoupling..




I also had some spare time over the weekend to do a few charts.. I will post 8 now, and I have a few more for later. Dont want to clog up the thread.

ALLIANCE RESOURCES (AGS)




GOODMAN GROUP (GMG)




EASTERN STAR GAS (ESG)




GEODYNAMICS LIMITED (GDY) (maybe the bottom)




AMCOR LIMITED (AMC)




AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS (AHE)




HAOMA MINING NL (HAO)




CSG LIMITED (CSV)




Have a good day and trade safe.

Cheers
Kevi