daytrade diaries... december 21

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    Morning traders.

    Market wrap: The share market looks set for a positive start to today's trade after a tech rally on Wall Street and modest gains in commodity prices.

    Local traders marked the SPI futures index up 16 points to 4655 on the weekend after strong earnings results from Oracle and BlackBerry-maker Research in Motion helped US share indexes push higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the advances, rising 1.45%. The broader S&P 500 added 0.58% and the blue-chip Dow trailed with a gain of just 0.2%.

    Healthy earnings outlooks from Oracle and RIM raised hopes that business is once again spending on technology and saw investors pile into Microsoft, Intel and Hewlett-Packard. Oracle rallied 6.4% and RIM by 10%.

    U.S. financial stocks also prospered - the S&P Bank Index rose 2.4% - and resources stocks were broadly higher on rising oil, gold and most base metals after the US dollar gave back most of its early gains. The U.S. dollar index pushed to a new three-month high above 78 but later pulled back to 77.78, little changed at +0.03%.

    Gold bounced off Thursday's six-week low as the whiff of conflict between Iran and Iraq brought investors back to safe-haven assets. The spot price jumped $15 to $1,112.40 an ounce. Crude oil futures also benefitted from news of an Iranian incursion into an Iraqi oil field, rising 0.55% to $73.05 a barrel.

    Base metal prices were mostly higher in London. Copper gained 0.41%, aluminium 1.08%, nickel 1.26%, tin 0.13%, zinc 0.74% while lead lost 1.39%.

    European markets tracked an early slide on Wall Street and closed before the bounce. Britains FTSE lost 0.4%, Germanys DAX 0.23% and Frances CAC 0.95%.

    TRADING THEMES THIS WEEK

    CHRISTMAS DOLDRUMS: The next three to four weeks are likely to feature low volumes and fewer opportunities than usual as the big institutions send most of their staff on holiday. It's a tough time of the year to make big money but there are always opportunities for the patient and quick-fingered. Setting alerts at key price levels is one way of picking up on breakouts or pullbacks to support levels.

    US DOLLAR VS COMMODITY PRICES: The inverse relationship between these two remained intact last week, although Friday's action offered a hint of divergence. The greenback has run hard for the last three weeks to Friday's three-month high. It's starting to look overbought in the short term, which may offer some relief this week for precious metals.

    ECONOMIC NEWS: The menu is thinner than usual in this holiday shortened week. (The ASX is closed from 2 pm EST on Thursday until next Tuesday.) Today, there are monthly new vehicle sales numbers at 11.30 am. Nothing of note tonight in the US but the rest of the week brings home sales, GDP, durable goods and jobless claims.

    Good luck to all.
 
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