OK fellas... saw what happened to EHL when they reported their...

OK fellas... saw what happened to EHL when they reported their half year earnings? it would happen to BLY s/p as well when they report their earnings in 2 weeks time...

i decided to ditch reports from macquarie and citi after what they did to me, recommending a buy for IPL @ 2.5!

lets shed some light... revenue is said to grow 18 % from FY 07, lets say 15% to be conservative... 1790 * 1.15 = 2058 - 986 (reported half yr revenue) = 1070 * 22% (operating margin) = 235.4 * 50% (profit margin, very conservative) = 117 * 0.7 (rough drop of AU and CND to US dollar) = 82 - 15 (10-20 restructing charges) > 67 net half year profit, brings the full year to 178 / 1502 (total shares on issued) > 0.1185 or 11.85 cents EPS, that is a P/E of 1.5!

ok some might be worried about their liquidity, hence no dividend... 150 mill to be paid april 2010 with 85 mill of liquidity, need extra of 65 mill... this year, as for the downturn, lets say an extra 25% of operations is delayed or idle... and profit to reduce by 40% while operating costs only reduce by 20% (conservative) > 0.01185 * 0.6 * 1.2 * 1502 = 128.15 - 65 (fund needed for april 2010 repayment) = 63.15 / 1600 (100 mill increase in no. of shares) = 0.042 or 4.2 cents EPS, thats still a P/E of 3.8!

dont think operations in Africa, Australia and South America where their majority of businesses are would be slowing down much...

thoughts?