daytrade diaries ... january 11, page-4

Morning traders. Good to be back.

Market wrap: The local market looks set to open close to a 15-month high after gains in key commodities and a late rally on Wall Street.

Futures traders priced in a 30-point premium for today's opening bell - the SPI futures index closed at 4925.

Wall Street was hamstrung by disappointing jobs numbers on Friday but squeezed out modest gains in the final hour of trade. The S&P 500 rose 0.29% to 1,145 and a weekly gain of 2.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 11 points or 0.11% higher at 10,618.19, up 1.8% for the week. The technology-focused Nasdaq gained 0.74% on the day and 2.6% for the week.

Non-farm payrolls in the U.S. fell by 85,000 in December, a bigger loss than most economists expected. However, earlier data was revised upward to show that jobs increased by 4,000 in November, the first gain in almost two years. The unemployment rate remained at 10%.

Some traders suggested weak job numbers could actually be interpreted as a plus for the market because they helped the case against interest rate rises. "With so much of that sentiment out there, some people may look at a jobs report like today's and feel a little more comfortable that the Fed is going to hold steady," said the head of trading at one American firm.

The U.S. dollar index, which matches the greenback against a basket of six currencies, retreated on Friday for a weekly loss of 0.5%. The fall helped U.S. oilers and metals miners as the price of oil and gold rose. An index of oil service companies rose 2% and gold/silver miners were up 1.4%. REITs and most financial stocks lost ground.

Crude oil recorded its fourth weekly gain as the U.S. dollar fell back. On Friday, crude futures rose 0.34% to $82.75 a barrel, close to its highest level in 15 months.

Gold recovered most of Thursday's losses. The spot price rose $7 to $1,137.10 an ounce, nearing its best price in the last month.

Base metals recorded modest falls after a week of steady gains. In London, copper lost 0.33%, aluminium 0.1%, lead 2.17%, nickel 1.75%, tin 0.24% and zinc 2.1%.

European markets shrugged off disappointing local job numbers. Britain's FTSE gained 0.14%, Germany's DAX 0.3% and France's CAC 0.51%.

TRADING THEMES THIS WEEK

U.S. EARNINGS SEASON: The fourth-quarter earnings-reporting season unofficially kicks off tonight with Alcoa and runs for the next few weeks. That may herald an end to the market's recent smooth upwards glide and a return to volatility as U.S. markets respond to conflicting signals.

RISING VOLUMES: The second week of January traditionally sees a pick-up in volume as more institutional traders return to their desks from holiday. More volume tends to mean more opportunities at the bigger end of the market and more intra-day scalping opportunities, as opposed to overnight holds.

ECONOMIC NEWS: The local scene starts to pick up this week with December inflation figures at 10.30 am today, ANZ job ads at 11.30 am and unemployment numbers on Thursday. The Alcoa result is the main event in the U.S. tonight, with the flow of economic news increasing as the week progresses.

Good luck to all.