daytrade diaries... january 12

Morning traders.

Market wrap: Australian stocks look set to open modestly higher after a mixed night for commodity prices and U.S. equities.

The SPI futures index closed 5 points higher at 4938 after a late rally on Wall Street and gains for gold, copper and some other base metals. However, local traders will watch the U.S. reaction to Alcoa's fourth-quarter profit result, released after the closing bell, for clues to tonight's trade in the U.S. (see "TRADING THEMES TODAY" below for more).

U.S. indexes finished mixed in muted trade ahead of the earnings season. The Dow rallied late in the session to finish 0.43% higher for a fourth straight gain. The S&P added 0.17% but the Nasdaq lost 0.21%.

There were gains for American oilers, miners, REITs, biotechs and utilities. Financial stock indexes were flat and tech stocks, airlines and telecoms lost ground.

With no economic news overnight, most of the attention in the U.S. was on the up-coming earnings season. Wall Street is looking for a sharp rise in fourth-quarter results compared to this time last year, when the financial crisis was near its peak.

"The economic situation now is just light years ahead of where it was a year ago," a managing director at Standard & Poor's told MarketWatch. "The market could very well go up [through earnings season] despite the economy moving sideways because companies have a lot of room to beat their numbers."

Crude oil lost ground as weather forecasters predicted a break in the long freeze in the U.S. Crude futures were recently trading at $82.26 a barrel, down 0.59% for the session.

Gold held most of the gains from yesterday morning's breakout to a one-month high. The spot price was recently $1,152 an ounce.

Copper rallied after China revealed a surge in demand. In London, copper rose 1.4% as imports of the metal into China during December climbed 27% on the previous month. Other base metals were mixed. Aluminum, tin and zinc advanced but lead and nickel declined.

The major European markets opened higher but faded to finish little changed. Britains FTSE was up 4 points or 0.07%, Germanys DAX rose 0.05% and Frances CAC lost 0.05%.

TRADING THEMES TODAY

ALCOA: The big aluminium producer kicked off the U.S. Q4 earnings season after this morning's closing bell and the reaction in the U.S. will likely set the tone for our market today. Analysts expected the company to show profit rebounded from last year's loss. Track Alcoa's share price here: http://www.marketwatch.com/ (Alcoa stock code: AA). Track U.S. futures here: http://liveindices.com/

CHINA: Yesterday's upbeat economic data was very supportive for our miners. China announced $1.2 trillion in 2009 exports, pushing it past Germany as the world's top exporter. China needs our raw materials to feed that monstrous demand.

ECONOMIC NEWS: The ABS releases monthly home loans data at 11.30 am today. The main interest tonight in the US is the November trade balance. Also tonight: a consumer confidence index.

Good luck to all.