daytrade diaries... june 29, page-2

U.S Market

Looking Ahead: Week of June 29 through July 3

The market moving indicators this week include ISM manufacturing on Wednesday and the monthly jobs report on Thursday. That’s right -- the employment situation report is out on Thursday since Friday is Independence Day observed. Fireworks could come early this week if the rate of payroll losses continues to shrink – stocks could surge on that news.

Employment Situation..out Thursday morning U.S time.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in May was unexpectedly and significantly less negative than in recent months, falling only 345,000. The number of job losses has actually shrunk four months in a row since January's 741,000 plunge. But the bad news was that the civilian unemployment rate jumped another five-tenths to 9.4 in May. There is speculation that the spike in unemployment was largely due to college and high school graduates not being able to obtain employment and due to the difficulty in seasonally adjusting jobless numbers this time of year. The May rate was the highest since 9.5 percent last seen in August 1983. Wage inflation remained very soft in May as average hourly earnings posted only a 0.1 percent gain. Looking ahead, job losses are likely to continue in June but the key question is whether the rate of job loss will slow. Although many analysts expect the unemployment rate to continue to rise, we could get a modest technical reversal in June as there is not as much of a surge in college graduates entering the job market.