For anyone worrying about the risks/or otherwise of holding stocks over Easter I thought I would relay the essence of an analysis of Easter markets contained in the most recent Guppytraders newsletter. I don't vouch for the outcomes but for what it is worth this is a summary of Guppy's findings from what he describes as "a statistical analysis of (his) 18 year data base."
"Over the past 18 years, the market has closed higher in the week following Easter ... 77.8% of the time. ...
These consistent high probability rises suggests that there are advantages for traders who buy on weakness prior to Easter with the intention of taking a quick profit in the following week ...
Traders who already hold stock going into the Easter week have a very high probability that the stock will continue with its pre-existing up trend and that it will finish higher in the week following Easter ..."
Guppy concludes that "For Traders, ...it is a useful strategy to buy on the Thursday prior to Easter and sell on the Friday following Easter to take advantage of the high probability trend rise. For investors, or traders who already hold open positions with bullish trends going into the week prior to Easter ... there is no need to sell in anticipation of a decline following the Easter break."
