My cautious take on MSP: TA is awesome - it broke out today and...

My cautious take on MSP:

TA is awesome - it broke out today and retested the break. Charting that one is not an exact science so I've taken the conservative trendline which gives breakout point of 2.5c. Importantly today was on massive volume. Chart below

FA:
MC = $9m (was, might be a bit more now)
Cash = $4.9m, gives EV of $4.1m!
They have existing revenue streams which make it approx. breakeven when the Ava portion is excluded. Therefore whatever revenue Ava brings in is going to be pretty much equal the earnings.
Low case could be $1 - 2 m, (annualised)
High case could be $18m
If its the low case, then a MC of $12 - 14m could be expected - not worthwhle
If it's more then the market cap will increase dramatically with increase in earnings - good trade

So at this point it's a gamble, but probably a good one. I just didn't like the vague wording of the last announcement. Didn't sit right with me.