Hi Beechmere your logic seems sound to me, I've been watching ECM since the announcement because I really like the sound of the project. I've also been thinking along the same lines as you, have read the ECM threads and while some people think it's a P&D before the placement and next week the SP will hit 5c, others think it's a solid buyer taking up a sizable position.
If it is a big player taking up a position, they obviously know about the placement and are buying regardless, and they probably know more than us.
Regarding your choices? Maybe sell 1/2 and have an each way bet?
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