daytrades feb 28 pre-market

Morning traders.

Market wrap: A cautiously positive open is likely for local shares after US stocks and industrial metals pared sharp weekly losses on Friday.

The March SPI futures contract finished 20 points or 0.42% stronger at 4839 on Saturday morning, suggesting our market can build on Friday's gains, the first in six sessions.

The Dow trimmed its biggest weekly drop since August with a 62-point or 0.51% rebound on Friday as a jump in US consumer confidence and improving jobless claims offset weaker-than-expected GDP and ongoing concerns about civil unrest in the Middle East. The S&P 500 rallied 1.06% and the Nasdaq 1.58%.

"It's a drumbeat of good economic reports," a manager at Huntington Asset Advisors in the US told Bloomberg. "Looking forward, it all depends on what happens with risk-prone areas such as the Middle East and inflation. At this stage, however, I don't see why the stock market can't continue to go up. Valuation isn't bad and the economy is doing well."

A broad rally boosted all sectors in the US on Friday, from oil companies to sectors impacted by the rising oil price. Australian miners listed in the US clawed back some of the week's losses as risk appetite picked up. BHP rallied 1.3%, Rio Tinto 2.1% and Alumina 2.1%.

Oil stabilised after Thursday night's steep reversal, but settled within striking distance of last week's high as traders weighed the loss of production in strife-torn Libya against Saudi Arabia's claims that it can fill any shortfall. Danske Bank assessed the "risk premium" in the current price of oil at around $15 to $20 a barrel and said it was unlikely to unwind while the prospect of further unrest in oil-producing countries persists. Crude futures added 60 cents or 0.61% to finish at $98.23 a barrel.

Precious metals, traditional safe havens in times of geopolitical turmoil and high inflation, eased back from last week's highs on Friday. Gold for April delivery retreated $6.50 or 0.5% to $1,409.30 an ounce. March silver gave back 27 cents or 0.8% to $32.90 an ounce.

Industrial metals snapped back, with copper recording its biggest one-day gain in three months. In London, copper rallied 3%, aluminium 1.1%, lead 1.3%, nickel 2.7%, tin 1.5% and zinc 1%.

The major European markets ended a run of five straight loses. Britain's FTSE rallied 1.37%, Germany's DAX 0.77% and France's CAC 1.51%.

TRADING THEMES THIS WEEK

OIL: As with last week, the key to this week's share-market performance is likely the price of oil. Unrest in the Middle East briefly drove the price of crude above US$100 a barrel last week, spooking global share markets and sparking a sharp pullback on the ASX. Oil matters because rising prices feed inflation, eventually leading to higher interest rates, and leave less cash in consumers' pockets. The chief US economist at Deutsche Bank notes that every US recession since 1973 has coincided with a surge in oil. Another economist estimates that every US$10 rise in oil knocks two points off US GDP. The wildcard this week is the turmoil in the Middle East. Gadaffi seems to be clinging on but even if he survives, there is no telling where the bushfires will spring up next.

EARNINGS SEASON WRAPS UP: This will not be remembered as a great earnings seasons - too many currency-related disappointments and investors seemed eager to "sell the news" where companies met but did not smash expectations. However, there was evidence that there is plenty of cash on the sidelines looking to enter the market on weakness. It was particularly striking on Friday how many earnings-plunges were met by buyers and finished well above their opening lows. Today is the last full day of the local earnings season. Among those reporting: BPT, MQG, PSA, QRN, QBE.

ECONOMIC NEWS: A busy week for local economic releases includes: the monthly inflation gauge (10.30 am today), private sector credit and corporate operating profits (11.30 am today); manufacturing index, retail sales, current account, year-on-year commodity prices, cash rate and RBA rate statement (tomorrow); GDP (Wed); and the trade balance, services index and building approvals (Thu). Friday's monthly jobs report tops a packed week in the US. Key releases this week include: personal income, consumer spending, core PCE price index and regional manufacturing (tonight); ISM, construction spending, motor vehicle sales (Tue); jobless claims, productivity, ISM non-manufacturing (Thu); and non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and factory orders (Fri).

Good luck to all.