YT this is Poly's post this morning might be of some help
morning Endless and fellow traders,
hope HLL is resting up and will be right to return next week to open the batting.
firstly would like to discuss the structural change that is occuring for investors considering investing in the Australia, for many years Australia was seen a safe haven to invest due to low sovereign risk which led to billions and billions of dollars flowing into this country on the back of this decade long resource boom.
however now on the back of the Gillard governments MRRT and carbon tax Australia is now considered a country which has high sovereign risk due to the constant tampering with tax regulations, its madness that during one of the largest commodity booms in history we are running a budget deficit, one can only imagine what the future holds for this country once the industrialisation of China/India is complete.
the last week has confirmed many peoples suspicions and that is investors are now shunning australian resource companies due to the uncertain regulatory conditions in this country, at one point our resource companies were valued at a premium due to the conceived low risk and investors the world over were prepared to pay over the odds to get into projects in this country.
you can see the shift in moneyflow once reserved for australian companies is now heading for Mongolia/Africa/Canada/South America.
as traders it is a whole new ball game, companies that once were viewed as avoid at all costs due to soverign risk are now firmly back on the table.
a couple of clear investment themes are starting poke their heads out of the pack.
- Mongolian/Canadian/Colombian/African coal plays are firmly in focus thank to concerns over the carbon tax, when the head of the Australian Coal Commission stands up and says Australian companies are going to be at a competitive disadvantage it is time to sit up and take notice, below are some companies to keep an eye on if this investment theme continues.
AFR CEO GUF CPL TVN MUI NAE XAM TPL AKM
- secondly african oil seems to be firmly in focus at the moment with plenty of money being spent by the global majors to acquire leases off virtually every african coast, a couple of ASX listed juniors to keep an eye on are:
FAR PCL WHN
- finally it hasn't happened yet but look for the african iron ore plays to get a boost if as expected China starts spending billions in the region to guarantee their long term supplies, a few companies worth keeping an eye on if the trend continues:
