daytrades march 28 pre-market, page-2

Aksier's Weekly Update:

Last week one of my closest trading partners was tragically killed in a car accident in Perth. He was a great family man and a very close friend and I will miss terribly the daily conversations I had with him. My thoughts are always with his family during this incredibly difficult time. Dedicated in memory of Joe.

The Scorecard from Friday / The Past Week
Markets
XJO 4742.6 points, +43.0 points, Up 0.9% / +116.2 points, Up 2.5%
DJIA 12,220.6 points, +50.0 points, Up 0.4% / +364.1 points, Up 3.1%
SPX 1,313.8 points, +4.1 Points, Up 0.3% / +9.5 points, Up 0.7%
NASDAQ 2,743.1, +6.6 points, Up 0.2% / +99.4 points, Up 3.8%
FTSE 5,900.8 points, +19.9 points, Up 0.3% / +182.7 points, Up 3.2%
DAX 6,664.4 points, +12.8 points, Up 0.2% / +282.0 points, Up 4.2%
Hangseng HSI 23,158.7 points +243.4 points, Up 1.1% / -141.5 points, Down 0.6%
Nikkei 9,536.1 points +101.1 points, Up 1.1% / +329.3 points, Up 3.6%
Shanghai 2,978.3 points +31.6 points, Up 1.1% / +68.9 points, Up 2.1%

Key Commodities
Gold -$0.60 to $1,430.70, Flat / +$11.00, Up 0.8%
Silver +$0.15 to $37.33, Up 0.4% / +$2.05, Up 5.8%
Oil USD +$0.08 to $105.52, Up 0.1% / +$3.90, Up 3.8%
Copper USD +$0.0010/lb to $4.4151, Flat / +$0.1054, Up 2.4%


Market Direction XJO: The recovery in stock prices continued last week with the XJO adding 2.5% for the week. The MACD has crossed up and although the slow stochastic is relatively high on the daily I expect there will be enough momentum for the index to test the underside of the trend line at around 4,850 points in the near term. For now the scenario of a quick fall to 4,200 is highly unlikely, an outcome I am somewhat relieved with. Another encouraging point from last week's trading was a recovery in many smaller speculative stocks.



The USD started last week with falls but then recovered to end right on the downtrend line which began in early January. From here the currency is either going to test the down trend resistance line or head lower. Given the level of quantative easing which has been occurring I lean towards the latter but in these markets anything is possible.


Market Direction DJIA: The Dow had another strong week adding a further 3.1% to finish well within the trading channel. In the short term I see little change to last weeks outlook where the index could head towards the top of the channel at around 12,500 points. High oil prices have had little impact on markets so far however if they continue to rise then this will probably create some headwinds against further advances. There is some key economic data out on consumer confidence and employment statistics due out in the US this week which could influence markets heavily although negative economic news last week (very low new home sales 250K and disappointing Core Durable Goods Orders -0.6% vs +2.1% expected) did not stop the advance of the DJIA.



Economic Data:
Employment data week in the US is upon us again. On Friday night the monthly labour figures will be released including the unemployment date. The expectation is that employment will have risen by 192K jobs over the past month however the unemployment rate will remain the same. There are key manufacturing indexes coming out in China, Japan the UK and the US this week. In Australia retail sales data for February will be released on Thursday morning.

USD Pending Home Sales - Tuesday 1:00am
GBP Current Account - Tuesday 7:30pm
USD CB Consumer Confidence - Wednesday 1:00am
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - Wednesday 11:15pm
AUD Building Approvals m/m - Thursday 11:30am
AUD Retail Sales m/m - Thursday 11:30am
GBP Nationwide HPI m/m - Thursday Tentative
USD Weekly Unemployment Claims - Thursday 11:30pm
JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index - Friday 10:50am
CNY Manufacturing PMI - Friday 12:00pm
GBP Halifax HPI m/m - 1st to 6th April
GBP Manufacturing PMI - Friday 7:30pm
USD Non-Farm Employment Change - Friday 11:30pm
USD Unemployment Rate - Friday 11:30pm
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI - Saturday 1:00am


Company Reporting Season:

Hardly and large companies are reporting this week.

Monday:
Tuesday:
Wednesday:
Thursday:
Friday:


Stocks To Watch




Ausquest Limited: AQD: Ausquest has fallen from 22 cents to its current level of 14 cents during the past 5 months. However during that time the company has reported significant results from Burkina Faso, including 8m @ 7.7g/t Au and 2m @ 41.3g/t Au from the Phaco Hill prospect. They are currently undertaking a 15,000m RC drilling program which could provide some interesting results in the near term. The company also has a large holding of tenements in the East Pilbara region of WA with some very well endowed neighbours including FMG and Cons Minerals. Add to this the ground around Mithril's (ASX: MTH) Huckita project and there appear to be many reasons why AQD's shares could represent excellent value at today's prices. But one of the best things about this company is the fact that it has over $20m in cash (or 8.7 cps) versus the current price of 14 cents. Now that is a lot of drilling by any standards. The EV being attributed to AQD appears to be very low given the address of their premier tenements. News Due: Drilling results from the 15,000m RC drilling program in Burkina Faso including results from the Phaco Hill prospect. Daimond drilling results from the Phaco Hill prospect. Results from a 15,000m RAB drilling program at the Dundas Gold project located in the Tropicana Gold Belt in WA. Price Target: A break through 14 cents on significant volume will signal a change in trend is occurring. The short term targets based on resistance levels are 15.0,17.0 and 19.5 cents. Disclosure: Holding AQD



C @ Limited: CEO: The stock has been in a downtrend for the past three months but Friday's trading action has changed the short term outlook for CEO. News is certainly due on potential coal acquisition in Mongolia and Indonesia. The team evaluating the new projects has been in action for many months so hopefully progress has been made and quality projects are about to be secured. News Due: Details about the acquisition of coal projects in Mongolia and Indonesia. Price Target: The price broke through a downtrend which began in January on Friday and provided we get confirmation today a target of approximately 4 cents is likely in the short term. If a good coal acquisition is announced soon then this would need to be re-assessed. Disclosure: Holding CEOO



Hawkley Oil and Gas Limited: HOG Production at Sorochynska is now increasing with gas and condensate now flowing through an 8mm choke producing 7.51 mmcf/d gas and 300 barrels of condensate. The company expects the choke size to increase again (target 9mm producing around 10mmcfg/d and 350 barrels of condensate) when the gas plant is running at optimal levels. After the start up phase is complete the company expects HOG to be generating revenues of $40m per year with the potential to at least double this with a new well into the same structure. The well is expected to produce for 8-9 years before any significant decline in production rates. NOPAT rates of 38-45% are the norm in Ukraine. The company is also likely to report a revised upgrade to the reserves at the field when analysis is completed. If the reserves are significant then the structure should be able to support an additional one or two production wells. I expect Hawkley will soon begin attracting interest from institutional investors as the income stream from the Sorochynska well is established. News Due: Ramp up to full production from the Sorochynska well. Updated reserve statement for the Sorochynska license area. Outline of plans to drill another well to increase production. Price Target: HOG appears to be breaking out of short term downtrend and based on a measured move the target is 79.5 cents. Disclosure: Holding HOG



Metaliko Resources Limited: MKO Due to the likely significance of the initial resource announcement and its impact on the very small market capitalisation of MKO (currently $17.4m fully diluted) the stock remains on my short term list this week. The timing for the resource estimate for the Anthill and Goongarrie Gold Projects is expected around the end of March. I will be checking on the timing with the company this week. Given the fact that we are at the end of March I expect the level of interest in MKO will increase this week in the lead up to the release of the initial JORC resource. Based on the grades and widths of drilling results announced I would expect the resource to be substantial. News Due: Initial resource calculations for the Anthill and Goongarrie mineralization. Interpretation of the 11,000 line kilometres of high resolution aeromagnetic surveys conducted in February. Details of further drilling programs at the company's gold projects. Price Target: In the short term I expect a move back towards the resistance at 25 cents. If the resource announcement impresses the market then the stock should move to the previous high at 30 cents before heading into blue sky. Disclosure: Holding MKO



Muting Gold Limited: MYG/MYGO/MYGOA The potential of Muting Gold's Deflector deposit is only starting to be recognized by the market. The potential for a multi million ounce deposit is real and the grades are very good. Added to this fact is that the company already has a plant that with a $50m investment can be bought into production in quick time, planned for 2012. Recent drilling has already increased the strike length of mineralization at the Deflector deposit by 50% indicating the potential to grow the resource from the current resource of 590,000 Oz of gold and 25,500 tonnes of copper. The next round of drilling will be followed by a resource upgrade. Incidentally the target for Deflector is 1.65-2.50m oz of gold and 40-80K tonnes of copper, which is a sizeable resource by any standard. Muting Gold is now included in my medium term holds and may end up becoming a strategic holding when the company's plans to fund the start up investment at Deflector become clearer. News Due: Further details of drilling program planned for Q2 (April) at Deflector. Following this program there will be a re-estimation of the open pit resource at Deflector. Price Target: Prices have now broken out from the pennant pattern to the upside on reasonable volume (although more is needed). In the short term the price may re-test the breakout point at 13.5 cents. The target is around 27.0 cents in the next 6-8 weeks; however there might be some resistance at the previous high of 20 cents. Disclosure: Holding MYGOA


And the weekly MYG chart is also showing a breakout:



Good Luck this week.