Hey thanks for the feedback. Yeah its for my Masters. Spelling is an issue it was due today so was kinda half away when doing it. If i was to publish this i would have others look over it and contribute.
Yeah gold price is very sensitive. Its been bullish before GFC too but one has to point to a figure some where. I thought its better taking a 10 year average compared to a shorter average where the growth will even be higher.
Also despite the bullish gold price i do feel the market is still pricing this in rather than being reserved about future growth. I did some sensitivity analysis for this and relised that gold growth can go down to around 9% before it start to become a hold tartget.
I could of taken 20 or 30 year averages but then my valuation would not reflect much market sentiment about gold and and rates.
Im not sure wether i stated exchange rates was perfectly correlated with gold. I was just saying that there is some form of correlation. I think in recent time other factors have distorted this relationship my the underlying correlation still exist therefore in a way dampening these effects but not eliminating them completely. I did find it is healthy to make the exchange rate move by a faction of the gold growth otherwise the growth will compound and things may get quick high in valuation.
Its interesting to note however my valuation is much lower than some other like macquarie.
Hey cha
Yeah the market is draining me too. Im just no feeling it lately and seems to be all over the place. Im really digging bounces these days though. So im just going to wait till some country in the world stuff up then buy maybe 3 or 4 days later. (depends what it is though)
