Thanks Britnee. Can't accuse you of being tardy on your first day back. ;-)
Half-time round-up:
Australian shares played catch-up with Easter gains on Wall Street as traders anticipate a Reserve Bank rate cut this afternoon.
At lunchtime the ASX 200 was trading 77 points or 1.3% ahead at 5976 led by gains in energy stocks +2.1%, industrials +1.7%, gold +1.6% and metals & mining +1.4%. IT (-0.3%) was the only sector to buck the trend. The scale of this morning's rally left some commentators wondering whether the market will have any more to give if the RBA cuts the cash rate at 2.30pm this afternoon EST.
“The risk heading into the RBA’s rate decision this afternoon is looking one-sided," Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets, told Bloomberg. "With a cut baked in to current levels, a decision to hold could bring disappointment.”
The central bank's decision was made no easier by mixed economic data this morning. The AIG Services Index slipped to 50.2 last month from a February reading of 51.7. March job ads were 1.4% weaker than February. However, February retail sales improved by a stronger-than-expected 0.7% on the previous month.
"While encouraging, this strong [retail] report does not make the RBA's job later today any easier – does this jump in sales imply that cutting the cash rate works and so let's cut again today?" TD Securities' Annette Beacher told Fairfax. "Or would sales have jumped anyway due to low retail petrol and surging wealth via higher share and house prices?"
China's Shanghai Composite rallied 1.64% and Japan's Nikkei 1.14%. Dow futures were recently off 17 points or 0.1%.
Crude oil futures eased 37 cents this morning to US$51.77 a barrel. Spot gold was $4.90 weaker at US$1,213.70 an ounce. The dollar was buying 76.18 US cents.
Looks like the market reckons the Reserve Bank is cutting again this arvo. It's a close thing, according to Fairfax - narrow majority of economists say "No" while the odds indicate there is a 72% chance (no points for guessing which indicator has the better track record...) Be interesting to see how much traders take off the table between now and 2.30pm. Trading: slow start to the session - felt like the Christmas doldrums for the first hour - but patience was eventually rewarded. Caught the bounce in MSB and had a speculator in CWG that took a long time to come good.
