daytrading august 23 afternoon, page-84

For anyone interested:

BROKER ALERTS (5 X AGO, 1 X BLD, 6 X FMG, 5 X PNA, 1 X STO):

CIMB Securities rates AGO as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

As far as misses go, this was a whopper, some 67% below consensus on rising costs and exploration expenses. Atlas burnt cash in the period. AGO has provided FY14 production guidance but nothing beyond, and the timing of Mt Webber stage 2 remains uncertain.

Target creamed to 88c from $1.20. Downgrade.

Target price is $0.88 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.045
If AGO meets the CIMB Securities target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. CIMB Securities forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.88.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

Citi rates AGO as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

FY13 results were disappointing and the broker has made earnings downgrades. Valuation has also fallen because of lower earnings and higher capex for projects, and despite reduced Mt Weber stage 2 capex. The combination of lower earnings and NPV has driven the broker to downgrade the recommendation to Neutral from Buy, The target is reduced to 90c from $1.10.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.065
If AGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.49.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

JP Morgan rates AGO as Neutral (3) -

Despite record revenue Atlas reported underlying profit of only $14 million, which the broker notes is well down on prior periods and consensus estimates. Furthermore high depreciation and capex guidance has resulted in downgrades to earnings estimates and valuation. A positive for JP Morgan was half-on-half earnings improvement, but this is off a low base.

With too much uncertainty over the development of growth projects the Neutral rating is retained. The price target is reduced to 95c from $1.00.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.115
If AGO meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.20%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.92.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

Macquarie rates AGO as Neutral (3) -

FY13 headline numbers were within 5% of Macquarie's estimates and cash flow was solid. The company is in the middle of a major expansion project that should enable production to grow from 6mtpa to 14mtpa in four years. However, the expansion is expected to consume the bulk of operating cash flow generation until FY16 and Macquarie remains cautious because of further capex increases during the expansion phase.

The Neutral rating is retained and the price target is reduced to 90c from $1.00.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.065
If AGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Macquarie forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.08.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

UBS rates AGO as Neutral (3) -

Atlas Iron's result fell 50% short of the broker and 75% short of consensus as sales slumped and freight costs jumped, triggering some eps estimate shifts.

Broker says Atlas reiterated guidance - and accepts the cost outlook but is sceptical of the D&A assumption.

UBS wants to see "runs on the board" in FY14 and an in-line result next time. It maintains a Neutral rating and 85c target price.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.015
If AGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.20%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.28.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

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UBS rates BLD as Buy (1) -

The broker has revised down estimates by a hefty 15%, 10% and 7% in FY14, FY15 and FY16 respectively, but describes the earnings outlook as "highly uncertain", claiming a pick-up in the US housing market over the next 18 months could lift revenue 30%.

The broker retains a Buy rating but cuts the target price to $5.02 from $5.29, deciding discretion may be the better part of valour.

Target price is $5.02 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: $0.76
If BLD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.82%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.36.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

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CIMB Securities rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Fortescue's profit result was a clear beat on the headline, roughly in line after one-offs but a beat on the earnings line. Cost savings were the main driver, the broker notes. The 10c div was a big beat on 4c expectations and FMG has suggested a 30-40% payout ratio from here. FY14 production and cost guidance was maintained and barring any collapse in iron ore prices, which the broker does not expect, FMG should re-rate "sharply" over the next 12 months in the broker's opinion.

Outperform and $5.10 target retained.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: $0.84
If FMG meets the CIMB Securities target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. CIMB Securities forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 9.92 cents and EPS of 97.20 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.33%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.38.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

Citi rates FMG as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Earnings were ahead of Citi's estimates by 8%. The TPI sale has not yielded the value or the structure that was targeted so has been put on the back burner. A modest earnings upgrade in FY14 has been made on the back of the FY13 result amid encouraging progress on cost reductions.

Modest earnings upgrades and the benefit of the Formosa deal has driven the increase in the broker's target price to $5.40 from $5.10. The Buy rating is retained and the stock remains the broker's preferred iron ore pure play.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: $1.14
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 13.89 cents and EPS of 78.36 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.26%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.44.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

Credit Suisse rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Fortescue's underlying result beat the broker by 15 and the 10c div exceeded 4c expectations. The only downer is it appears hopes of an infrastructure sale are fading, the broker notes, albeit the Formosa deal releases some value.

Outperform and $6.00 target retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: $1.74
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 9.92 cents and EPS of 58.72 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.33%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.25.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

JP Morgan rates FMG as Overweight (1) -

The FY13 result was in line with JP Morgan's expectations. The 10c dividend was a surprise and affects the near-term debt reduction assumptions. Nevertheless, the company has hit a turning point, in the broker's view, in reaching positive free cash flow. This should see the stock materially re-rate over a 12-month view, as balance sheet gearing reduces.

The Overweight rating is retained. The price target is reduced to $4.95 from $5.10.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: $0.69
If FMG meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 9.92 cents and EPS of 97.20 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.33%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.38.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

Macquarie rates FMG as Restricted (3) -

Underlying profit was calculated at US$1.62 billion which was 2% below Macquarie's forecasts. Research restrictions prevent Macquarie from advising on valuation at present.

Current Price is $4.26. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Macquarie forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 27.77 cents and EPS of 98.99 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.52%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.30.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

UBS rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Fortescue beat consensus and the broker thanks to lower mining costs and an FX windfall nearly four times estimates.

Big surprise was the reinstatement of the dividend (10c per share) which the company framed as a statement of confidence.

Earnings rose 8% and UBS reckons guidance is conservative.

The broker retains its Neutral rating and $4.40 target price.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: $0.14
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 7.94 cents and EPS of 81.33 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.86%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.24.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

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Citi rates PNA as Sell (5) -

The half year profit of US$39m was OK in Citi's view. Cash generation should rise strongly following the winding down of existing development programs. While operational performance remains solid, the broker believes the equity is fully priced.

The Sell rating and $1.50 price target are maintained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If PNA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December. Citi forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 6.94 cents and EPS of 15.18 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.89.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

Credit Suisse rates PNA as Neutral (3) -

PanAust's result beat the broker on an unforecast derivative gain. The second half should be stronger and full year guidance has been reiterated, the broker notes. The dividend payout has been raised.

Target rises to $2.40 from $2.30 but Neutral retained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.14
If PNA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 6.94 cents and EPS of 13.99 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.16.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

JP Morgan rates PNA as Overweight (1) -

Cash flow translation in the June half, while soft relative to earnings, was largely in line with the broker's forecast. The Overweight rating is retained and the price target is raised to $2.40 from $2.25.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.14
If PNA meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 6.94 cents and EPS of 14.88 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.19.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

Macquarie rates PNA as Outperform (1) -

First half revenue was up 12% but below the broker's forecasts. Lower capital spending in the second half should deliver increased cahs flow. Macquarie expects metal output to increase quarter-on-quarter in the second half, with the potential for both copper and gold production to hit the upper end of guidance.

The Outperform rating is maintained and the price target is steady at $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.94
If PNA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December. Macquarie forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 5.10 cents and EPS of 12.10 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.26%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.68.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

UBS rates PNA as Buy (1) -

PanAust's interim beat the broker by a solid 22% thanks to a 12% derivatives windfall.

UBS notes a rise in the dividend payout ratio to 46% from 31% in the December half and notes more dividends may be in the wings.

Broker retains its Buy rating and $2.80 target price, describing PanAust as "one of our preferred base metals stocks".





Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.54
If PNA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December. UBS forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.12.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

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JP Morgan rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Santos will take a 50% stake in AWE's ((AWE)) Ande Ande Lumut. JP Morgan thinks the deal is broadly neutral for Santos and retains an Overweight rating. The price target edges down to $15.09 from $15.10.

Target price is $15.09 Current Price is $14.46 Difference: $0.63
If STO meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.96.

Market Sentiment: 0.5