daytrading august 28 afternoon, page-54

For anyone interested:

BROKER ALERTS (1 X AGO, 6 X BBG, 7 X FLT, 2 X MML, 2 X MMS 1 X RSG, 1 X SLR):

Credit Suisse rates AGO as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The company is having growing pains according to Credit Suisse. FY13 underlying earnings were disappointing at $14m versus the broker's estimate of $49m.

Differences were lower revenue, higher costs and higher depreciation. Earnings are expected to be negative in FY14, given guidance that depreciation will nearly double as short-life mines end.

The reduction in the stock price increases the rating to Outperform from Neutral and the price target is steady at $1.00.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.215
If AGO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.82%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 31.40.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

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CIMB Securities rates BBG as Neutral (3) -

The broker has adjusted earnings forecasts to reflect additional information on recent restructuring activity, making downward revisions to FY14 and FY15. As a stable funding structure is envisaged going forward, CIMB increases the DCF valuation and target price to 48c from 25c.

The Neutral rating is retained.

Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: minus $0.055 (current price is over target).
If BBG meets the CIMB Securities target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. CIMB Securities forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.49 cents.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 109.18.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

Citi rates BBG as Downgrade to Sell, High Risk from Buy (5) -

It was a huge loss for Billabong and the broker is forecasting further reduction in FY14. The important factor for Billabong is that it has avoided insolvency and private equity interest is testament to value in its brands, the broker suggests. However any further refinancing will be highly earnings dilutive.

The broker has flipped to Sell from Buy while raising its target to 40c from 33c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: minus $0.135 (current price is over target).
If BBG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.44.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

Deutsche Bank rates BBG as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

FY13 results were better than the broker expected. Despite a protracted process, no suitor has been willing to take on the risk associated with owning all of the equity and, to Deutsche Bank, this reflects the uncertain outlook.

While the group has time before its debt covenant is tested, there are no guarantees the business can be turned around and the high interest coupon and sharp dilution will weigh heavily on earnings.

At current levels the analysts believe the price does not appropriately reflect the risks and hence the rating has been reduced to Sell from Hold. The price target is raised to 25c from 15c.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: minus $0.285 (current price is over target).
If BBG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 53.50.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

JP Morgan rates BBG as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (5) -

Billabong reported within guidance and beat the broker.

JPMorgan notes higher borrowing costs and a structurally weak result and reduces net profit guidance, downgrading EBITDA forecasts 4.6% and 6.6% for FY14 and FY15.

The broker notes tough market conditions; delays in turning the business around and potential for shareholder dilution in refinancing proposals as negatives.

It downgrades to Underweight from Neutral, noting the strong share price rally, but lifts the target price to 43c from 35c.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: minus $0.105 (current price is over target).
If BBG meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 53.50.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

Macquarie rates BBG as Neutral (3) -

Billabong reported a FY13 loss of $859m. Macquarie makes two points: Firstly, debt restructuring has more than likely eliminated earnings for equity holders in the near term unless EBITDA improves and, secondly, the company needs revenue growth and there was no discussion about how this might be achieved on the conference call.

The Neutral rating and 65c price target are maintained.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.115
If BBG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Macquarie forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.81.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

UBS rates BBG as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Billabong' s full-year result met guidance and the broker's forecast. UBS notes that while financing has been obtained, working capital is a problem for the company given inventory days have risen.

The broker notes improving costs and global trends as positives and lifts first-half earnings estimates. Negatives including interest costs, a "high level of uncertainty" and a run in the share price which has left the stock trading well above the broker's valuation.

UBS downgrades to Underperform from Neutral but lifts the target price to 30c from 25c.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: minus $0.235 (current price is over target).

If BBG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.75.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

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CIMB Securities rates FLT as Outperform (1) -

FY13 profit growth of 18% beat the top end of yet another year of upgraded guidance. CIMB finds it hard to fault the result. Combined with potential for continued corporate market share gains and productivity improvements, FY14 looks promising to the broker.

The Outperform rating is retained and the price target is raised to $53.80 from $44.30.

Target price is $53.80 Current Price is $48.41 Difference: $5.39
If FLT meets the CIMB Securities target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. CIMB Securities forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 149.00 cents and EPS of 266.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.20.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

Citi rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

Flight's result met recently upgraded guidance. The broker's FY14 forecast sits at the upper end of the new guidance range. The broker has increased forecast earnings on rising margins. The surprise came in a higher dividend payout and the broker notes FLT is building excess capital which will lead to further payout increases or even a capital return ahead of the Coalition's planned franking reductions.

Target rises to $49.50 from $38.70 but the market is already up there, hence Neutral retained.

Target price is $49.50 Current Price is $48.41 Difference: $1.09
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 262.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.20%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.48.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

Credit Suisse rates FLT as Outperform (1) -

FY13 results and guidance were above the broker's expectations and leave room for guidance upgrades through the course of FY14.

The target price has increased to $54.00 from $46.00 and the Outperform rating is retained.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $48.41 Difference: $5.59
If FLT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 158.71 cents and EPS of 266.72 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.15.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

Deutsche Bank rates FLT as Hold (3) -

The FY13 results were better than the broker expected. The outlook for the business remains positive, supported by FY14 earnings guidance of 8-12% profit growth.

Deutsche Bank sees upside risk considering scope for further market share and productivity gains but with limited upside potential to the revised $50.00 price target (prior $42.00) a Hold rating is retained.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $48.41 Difference: $1.59
If FLT meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 158.00 cents and EPS of 266.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.26%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.20.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

JP Morgan rates FLT as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) -

Flight Centre reports at the upper end of guidance, slightly outpacing estimates. FY14 guidance met consensus.

The broker cites the dividend, a likely rise in the pay-out ratio, margin expansion and solid guidance as pluses.

But JPMorgan believes it will be hard to squeeze much more out the margins and notes the share price has rocketed 81% so upside is limited.

So, while the broker likes the result, it downgrades to Neutral from Overweight and slightly bumps up the target price to $47.15 from $43.00.

Target price is $47.15 Current Price is $48.41 Difference: minus $1.26 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 148.00 cents and EPS of 264.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.06%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.34.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

Macquarie rates FLT as Outperform (1) -

Flight Centre showed a healthy set of numbers in its FY13 report. According to Macquarie, the company continues to demonstrate its ability to outgrow the market and generate increasing free cash flow. In a generally low growth environment the broker thinks the company deserves its premium to the market and could trade higher should conditions improve.

The Outperform recommendation is maintained. The price target is lifted to $54.30 from $53.16.

Target price is $54.30 Current Price is $48.41 Difference: $5.89
If FLT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Macquarie forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 155.90 cents and EPS of 261.30 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.53.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

UBS rates FLT as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

The broker was forced to initiate a massive upgrade of Flight Centre's target price after another glowing result at the upper end of guidance.

Flight Centre's model continues to defy the naysayers and improved process lent support to margins. The broker says earnings diversification has improved, the percentage of corporate traffic rising steadily and expects dividends to flow.

UBS notes the company is trading at a full multiple for a cyclical but upgrades the rating to Buy from Neutral, noting strong earnings momentum. The target price rises to $53.10 from $38.70 - the higher end of the broker's valuation range.

Target price is $53.10 Current Price is $48.41 Difference: $4.69
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 137.00 cents and EPS of 240.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.17.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

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Citi rates MML as Buy (1) -

Medusa's result fell short of the broker on higher costs and exploration expense. The broker nevertheless sees attractive upside now that the Co-O mill expansion is nearing completion after its delay, although the pressure will be on to generate cash against MML's debt facility.

Buy and $3.20 target retained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.48

If MML meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.80 cents.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

Deutsche Bank rates MML as Hold (3) -

FY13 profit was below the broker's estimates largely from the write-off relating to the Anoling project. Deutsche Bank believes the new mill will soon be commissioned but, given the recent delays, stays cautious. The timing of the ramp up has implications not only for production growth but also the balance sheet.

The Hold rating is maintained and the price target is raised to $2.30 from $1.95.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).

If MML meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.31 cents.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

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Citi rates MMS as Buy (1) -

McMillan's result met its recent downgrade but a dividend "cut" has become the reality of no dividend as the company preserves cash. When last the broker updated, an election date had not been set. A coalition victory is implicit in the broker's assumption that only four months of lease business will now be lost instead of six. Meanwhile the UK business is progressing well.

Target rises to $13.85 from $12.60 and Buy retained.

Target price is $13.85 Current Price is $11.76 Difference: $2.09
If MMS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 65.10 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.06.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

Credit Suisse rates MMS as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

FY13 results were in line with guidance. No final dividend was declared. The company has stated that until the election outcome is known, there is no reasonable basis to make any comment on the novated leasing business.

Having sold off sharply the stock has since rebounded in line with the broker's original risk-weighted target price. The rating is raised to Neutral from Underperform and the price target is steady at $12.25.

Target price is $12.25 Current Price is $11.76 Difference: $0.49
If MMS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 49.45 cents and EPS of 78.59 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.96.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

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Citi rates RSG as Downgrade to Sell, High Risk from Neutral (5) -

Resolute's result missed the broker on lower than expected gold sales. RSG has revised its mine plans, deferred expansion and revised down reserves in the wake of the lower gold price, the broker notes, although cash generation in FY14 should provide a tailwind.

Target falls to 80c from 90c. Downgrade.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If RSG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.25.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

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Deutsche Bank rates SLR as Sell (5) -

The company reported a FY13 net loss of $319m, including $352m in asset and inventory impairments.

Silver Lake has now completed a $47.5m capital raising through the issue of 55.9m new shares and plans to raise a further $16.2m through a $15m share purchase plan and $1.2m director share placement by early October.

The equity raising removes debt repayment concerns, but the underlying profitability of SLR's assets remain highly dependent on the gold price and capital commitment, in Deutsche Bank's view.

The Sell rating is retained and the price target is raised to 65c from 60c.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If SLR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.00 cents.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.96.

Market Sentiment: 0.0