Another flat start to trade is likely as global stocks remained in a holding pattern overnight as Greek debt negotiations dragged on.
The March SPI 200 futures contract ended the night session two points or less than 0.1% ahead at 4259 after minor losses in Europe and minor gains on Wall Street.
US stocks trimmed early falls following reports that Greece has committed in writing to austerity measures necessary to obtain a second rescue package. The S&P 500 rallied 0.22%, led by financial and technology shares. The Nasdaq added 0.42% and the Dow trailled at +6 points or +0.04%.
"It seems as if everyone is holding their breath and waiting for some kind of resolution in Greece to let us know what direction to take next," a senior market analyst at Charles Schwab in the US told Bloomberg. "A deal will be made ultimately, but policy makers have already proven that deadlines mean little to them."
A document obtained by Bloomberg commits Greece to cuts to the minimum wage and pensions, apparently clearing the way for the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Union to release a second round of bailout money. Meanwhile Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos recommenced negotiations with political supporters of his caretaker government. Euro-zone finance ministers are due to hold an emergency meeting tonight to sign off on a Greek deal.
European markets gradually gave up initial gains as the long wait for a deal continued. Britain's FTSE fell 0.24%, Germany's DAX 0.08% and France's CAC 0.05%.
Most metals lost ground but oil advanced in volatile trade after US inventories increased less than predicted. Light, sweet crude for March delivery was lately up 59 cents or 0.6% at US$99 a barrel after trading as high as $100.09 a barrel and as low as $98.17.
Copper and platinum stood out as a modest rise in the US dollar pressured metal prices. Gold and silver turned south as hints of progress on Greece's problems encouraged some haven buyers to sell. Gold for April delivery was recently off $12.30 or 0.7% at US$1,736.10 an ounce. March silver dropped 22 cents or 0.7% to US$33.97 an ounce. Platinum for April delivery added $14 or 0.85% at US$1,668.50 an ounce.
Copper was the pick of the industrials, but others flirted with multi-month highs before retracing. In London, copper rallied 1.1%, aluminium fell 0.2%, lead less than 0.1%, nickel 1.2%, tin 0.9% and zinc was flat. US copper was recently up 0.8%.
TRADING THEMES TODAY
WAITING FOR GODOT: The long wait for a Greek debt deal continues. Markets are showing Zen-like patience, creating unusually benign conditions for pumps at the speccy end of our market. Let's enjoy it while it lasts. It's been several years since trading conditions were as placid as this. Financials were among the picks in the US, along with tech stocks and industrials. Resource sectors were soft and small caps were flat.
CHINESE INFLATION: If our market is to catch fire today, one possible spark would be a benign inflation report from China at 12.30pm EST. As Credit Suisse analysts told Reuters: "A further deceleration in inflation could open the door for additional cuts in the [bank] Reserve Requirement Ratio by the People's Bank of China. This in turn would be good news for cyclical assets such as industrial metals." And that in turn would be good for Australian resource stocks. The CPI is forecast to ease from an annual rate of 4.1% to 4% and the PPI from 1.7% to 0.8%. MarketWatch is always quick to post the figures.
ECONOMIC NEWS: With no significant domestic news scheduled, China's inflation report at 12.30pm EST is today's main intraday interest (see above). There are central bank rate decisions due tonight in Europe and the UK, not to mention the outside possibility that Greece may finally strike a deal with some of its lenders. A quiet week for scheduled news in the US continues with the weekly jobless claims, natural gas storage and wholesale inventories.
