Daytrading July 8 afternoon

Thanks Brit - welcome back - and morning crew.


Half-time round-up:

Shares marked time ahead of tonight's US jobs update as a downswing in commodity prices left the benchmark index modestly lower for the week.

At 1pm EST the ASX 200 was seve points or 0.1% ahead at 5235 as gains in the consumer discretionary sector +0.7%, consumer staples +0.6% and materials +0.3% were largely offset by falls in gold -1.1%, IT -0.5% and utilities -0.3%. The index closed at 5247 last week following a post-Brexit global rebound, but has struggled for direction this week.

"Markets [have] become concerned that a correction in commodity prices is getting underway," CMC chief market analyst Ric Spooner told Fairfax. ""Oil and base metals markets are in a healthier place than they were at the start of the year. However, a correction and period of price softness now looks possible."

Crude oil skidded almost 5% overnight, but pared its loss this morning. WTI oil futures were lately up 45 cents or 1.1% at US$45.68 a barrel.

A downbeat morning on Asian markets saw China's Shanghai Composite off 0.79%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0.82% and Japan's Nikkei 0.38%. Dow futures were recently off 11 points or 0.06% ahead of tonight's June payrolls report, which is expected to set the tone on global markets for the next few sessions. Economists predict jobs growth of around 175,000, according to Reuters.

"I would say numbers around the consensus figure will be the most comfortable for markets. Anything below 100,000 will scare investors, while [a] reading above 200,000 could rekindle talk of a Fed rate hike even though I suspect people would not seriously expect the Fed to raise rates soon," Hirokazu Kabeya, chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities, told Reuters.


Gold futures were $4.40 or 0.3% weaker at US$1,357.70 an ounce. The dollar was buying 75.07 US cents.


Been full-steam sideways this week on the XJO, but the index looks to have slipped into a mild medium-term downtrend since the end of May - a series of lower highs and lower lows. That suggests a retest of 5100 soon. Alternatively, a clean break of 5300 would seem to negate the pattern. Trading: losing week for me, the first in many months. A few schoolboy errors, the resurrection of some old bad habits and a mid-week hangover all contributed. Clawed a bit back this morning with a short-lived rebound in SAU, nonetheless I'll be happy to put this week behind me and do some trade analysis over the weekend.