Morning traders. Thanks Trees and after-market regulars.
Market wrap:
Shares are looking at a flat start after US stocks erased gains in the last hour of trade following their best weekly return in six weeks.
The June SPI 200 futures contract eased two points or less than 0.1% to 5955 as the late sell-off dampened the outlook after weakness in the US dollar boosted commodity prices and resource stocks.
The S&P 500 fell four points or 0.18% after being up as much as seven points as traders mulled mildly disappointing housing news and a string of speeches from members of the Federal Reserve. The index last week put on 2.7% after the Fed appeared to push out the starting date and pace of rate rises into later in the year. Overnight, the Dow dropped 12 points or 0.06% and the Nasdaq 15 points or 0.31% as biotechs hit reverse.
"As we get closer to the last few days of trading [for the first quarter] we're going to see more volatility," Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital in the US, told CNBC. "I think the market turns technical this week."
Sales of existing homes in the US recovered last month from January's nine-month low but not by as much as economists anticipated. Overall sales rose 1.2% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million from 4.82 million in January. Economists had predicted a rebound to 4.94 million.
With the timing of the first rate rise continuing to command attention, Fed watchers had plenty of material to digest. Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said an increase was likely this year if the jobs market improved and inflation appears on track for the central bank's 2% target. Read more here. St Louis Fed President James Bullard warned that market expectations for rate increases were out of alignment with the Fed's own projections, raising the possibility of a violent stock market reaction when the Fed lifts its benchmark rate. Read more here. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said the central bank could do a better job in providing forward guidance about its rate intentions. Read more here.
Consumer stocks were the best of the sectors in the US. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index slumped 2.24% from Friday's record level. The Dow Jones Transportation Average was also notably weak, falling 1.97% following a soft outlook from railroad company Kansas City Southern and a two-week high in the price of crude oil. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for May delivery settled 88 cents or 1.9% ahead at US$47.45 a barrel.
The US dollar extended its biggest weekly decline against the euro in four years overnight. The dollar was lately down 1.35% against the euro. The Australian dollar jumped more than a cent, this morning buying 78.92 US cents.
BHP and Rio Tinto enjoyed solid gains in US trade, rising 2.83% and 1.42%, respectively, as the falling greenback made dollar-denominated commodity prices more attractive to holders of other currencies. Spot iron ore for import to China yesterday fell 80 cents to US$54.20 a dry tonne.
The falling greenback helped base metals extend Friday's strong rally. In London, copper rose 1.2%, aluminium 0.1%, lead 3.1%, nickel 0.6%, tin 2% and zinc 1.1%. US copper for May delivery was recently up 4.7% at US$2.89 a pound.
Gold stocks were a US stand-out, rising 2.0.8% as the precious metal sealed a fourth straight rise. Gold for April delivery gained $3.10 or 0.3% to settle at US$1,187.70 an ounce following a nervy session on European equity markets as Greece continued to spar with its international lenders. The Stoxx Europe 600 shed 0.69% as Germany's DAX lost 1.19%, France's CAC retreated 0.64% and Britain's FTSE gained 0.22%.
TRADING THEMES TODAY
LATE DIVE DAMPENS OUTLOOK AHEAD OF CHINESE UPDATE: The overnight action looked broadly supportive of further gains on the ASX today until someone on Wall Street hit 'Sell' with 15 minutes left to trade. As a commentator quoted above observed, the end of the quarter is drawing near, which means increased volatility as the institutions pursue their own agendas. It was another night of big moves in forex markets, which flowed into commodities. Copper surged nearly 5% in the US. Lead was also very strong in London. China can give our market a leg-up - or down - when HSBC releases preliminary March factory data at 12.45pm.
ECONOMIC NEWS: The Conference Board releases leading indexes for Australia at 10am EST and China at 1pm, but today's potential market-mover is HSBC's 12.45pm flash manufacturing PMI for China. Europe releases manufacturing and services figures tonight. US highlights are the consumer price index/core CPI, new home sales, flash manufacturing PMI, Richmond Manufacturing Index and house price index.
