Morning traders.
Market wrap:
A strong close to Wall Street's best week since June has Australian shares aiming higher today.
The December SPI 200 futures contract rallied 30 points or 0.7% on Saturday morning to 4450 as the S&P 500 extended its winning run to a fifth day for the first time since August and commodity markets benefitted from a soft US dollar.
A holiday-shortened session on Friday saw the S&P 500 put on 1.29% for a weekly gain of 3.6%. All 30 Dow components rallied as the blue-chip index added 173 points or 1.35% for the session and 3.4% for the week.
The advance came as investors anticipated the start of the US Christmas shopping season and reacted to unexpectedly solid German business confidence and Thursday's rebound in Chinese manufacturing. Volumes were below average as trading ceased at 1pm and many market participants used Thursday's Thanksgiving public holiday as an excuse for a long weekend.
"People are trying to get a sense of what the holiday shopping season will be in the US," the chief investment officer at PNC Wealth Management in the US told Bloomberg. "It's good news that business confidence is picking up in Germany. Other than that, there's not much driving the market today in this shortened session."
Shares in the likes of Target, Wal-Mart and Macys rallied as "Black Friday" sales turned the spotlight on retail stocks. Analysts have predicted improved sales this year as an up-turn in the housing market and solid consumer confidence brings shoppers back to the stores.
The first expansion in German business confidence in eight months helped European markets seal their best week in 11 months. The Stoxx European 600 put on 0.6% on Friday for a weekly gain of 4% as Germany's DAX and France's CAC both put on 0.88% and Britain's FTSE added 0.48%. The Ifo German business climate index improved to 101.4 from 100 in October, confounding predictions of a decline to 99.5. A separate report showed French business confidence rising from three-year lows.
A "risk on" session drove the US dollar index down 0.6%, increasing the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities. West Texas crude oil for January delivery capped its best weekly performance since mid-October with a rise of 88 cents or 1% to US$88.26 a barrel.
Gold closest at its highest level in more than a month as South African mines continued to suffer from violent strikes and leaders of the European Union ended a budget meeting without agreement. Gold for December delivery climbed $23.60 or 1.4% to US$1,751.80 an ounce.
Industrial metals were well supported, but gains in copper were capped by news that stocks in Chinese warehouses reached record levels last week. US copper for December delivery rallied three cents or 0.9% to US$3.53 a pound. In London, copper advanced 0.8%, aluminium 1.9%, lead 1.4%, nickel 0.4%, tin 2.1% and zinc 1.9%.
TRADING THEMES THIS WEEK
FISCAL CLIFF: Positive economic news from China and Europe and the absence of US budget headlines helped world markets last week put in one of their strongest performances in months. Momentum is good leading into this week, but markets will have to overcome the return of the US Congress and a resumption of negotiations over a package of tax increases and spending cuts due on January 1 unless the feuding political parties reach a compromise. Congress has three weeks to break a deadlock that could push the economy back into recession.
BLACK FRIDAY/CYBER MONDAY BOOST: Overnight, the National Retail Federation reported a record start to the US Christmas shopping season. That could get US stocks off to a flyer tonight. US futures should tell the story later today. Read more here. Today is so-called "Cyber Monday" in the US when online retailers try to cash in on holiday spending with special offers.
DEADLOCK IN EUROPE: Europe's difficulties increased on Friday when the European Union failed to agree on a budget for the next seven years following disagreements over spending cuts. Read more here. Meanwhile, finance ministers will tonight gather yet again to discuss Greece's next bailout payment amid disagreement with the IMF.
ECONOMIC NEWS: A light week for scheduled domestic news includes: construction work (Wed); private capital expenditure, new home sales (Thu); and private sector credit (Fri). US highlights include: durable goods, consumer confidence, house price index (tomorrow); Federal Reserve "beige book", new home sales (Wed); weekly jobless claims, revised GDP (Thu); and personal income and consumer spending (Fri).
Good luck to all.
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