Morning traders and punters. Best of luck wherever you place your bets today.
Market wrap:
Australian shares face a flat start following falls in Europe and a late kick higher on Wall Street ahead of tonight's presidential election.
The December SPI 200 futures contract ended the night session unchanged at 4458 as traders bet that the ASX yesterday pre-empted a better overseas session than eventuated.
The S&P 500 was underwater for much of the session before pushing to a late gain of 0.2% on below-average volume as many traders sat out the last session before America goes to the polls. The Dow tacked on 19 points or 0.14% and the Nasdaq managed a more decisive rise of 0.6% as Apple rebounded.
"People are like holding their breath and turning blue," a manager at Huntington Asset Advisors in the US told Bloomberg. "There's concern about Europe. The market is looking like there's some worry in Greece. There's also the election in the US. That keeps investors on the sidelines."
Most European markets retreated as the Greek government prepares for two controversial parliamentary votes this week needed to access more rescue funds from international lenders. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras's coalition will try to pass structural reforms tomorrow night and a new austerity budget on Sunday. Germany's DAX eased 0.51% overnight, France's CAC 1.24% and Britain's FTSE 0.5%, while the volatile Athens General Index surged 3.35%.
The night's only substantial economic news showed a mild slowdown in the strength of services activity in the US. The Institute for Supply Management index of non-manufacturing activity eased to 54.2 last month from 55.1 in September. Meanwhile, US traders kept their fingers crossed for a clear result in one of the tightest presidential elections in years.
"Wall Street is hoping for an orderly and decisive outcome, regardless of who wins," the director of investments at Hinsdale Associates in the US told MarketWatch. "Stocks rallied over the [northern] summer as the likelihood of an Obama victory appeared greater. Once Romney gained momentum in the fall, stocks have been left wondering who might win and have ended up trading mostly sideways to negative."
Gold and the US dollar benefitted from the uncertainty, playing their traditional roles as havens. Gold for December delivery was recently up $9 or 0.5% at US$1,684.30 an ounce.
A 0.2% rise in the US dollar index kept a lid on industrial metals and helped to push copper to a two-month low in the UK. In London, copper lost 0.2%, aluminium 0.8%, nickel 0.2%, tin less than 0.1% and zinc 0.3%. Lead rallied 1.6%. US copper for December delivery was recently down less than a cent or 0.1% at US$3.48 a pound.
Oil clawed back some of Friday's 3% fall. West Texas crude for December delivery was lately up 95 cents or 1.1% at US$85.1482 a barrel.
TRADING THEMES TODAY
LOW-VOLUME DAY AHEAD: A nice little late kick in Wall Street put a brighter complexion on our futures this morning, but we're likely in for a tepid session with the Vics on holiday and the rest of us with half an eye on another kind of form-sheet. Melbourne Cup days tend to be lacklustre even before you add the uncertainty of a US presidential election tonight and change of leadership later this week in China. Biotechs were among the picks in the US overnight, along with tech stocks and airlines. Interestingly, defensive sectors accounted for most of the falls, suggesting more interest in risk than the topline numbers suggest.
LUCKY SEVEN?: The Reserve Bank has changed the cash rate on the last six Melbourne Cup days and may well make it seven at 2.30pm EST this afternoon. A majority of economists polled by AAP expect the cash rate to come down by 25 basis points this afternoon to 3%, but a cut is no certainty in the light of recent improvements in global economic data. The new rate and rate statement will be posted here at 2.30pm sharp.
ECONOMIC NEWS: The Reserve Bank's 2.30pm EST cash rate decision is today's domestic highlight, but the quarterly house price index is due at 11.30am. Europe has manufacturing, factory orders, services and inflation data due tonight. The US outlook is dominated by presidential and congressional elections.
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